In the 2012 redistricting, the GOP was hopeful that the new district to which the state would be entitled would lean Republican. Instead, the independent redistricting commission drew a new district in the southeastern portion of the Phoenix metropolitan area. While the district has a nominal Republican lean, it probably leans a touch toward the Democrats at the state level.
Kyrsten Sinema won the district in 2012. Some Democrats feared that Sinema, who had once described herself as a “Prada socialist,” would prove too liberal for the electorate. Indeed, on election night, the race was too close to call, even as Barack Obama was running ahead of his national average here. Sinema was eventually declared the winner by about four points.
In 2014, Sinema faces retired Air Force officer Wendy Rogers. It would probably take a tsunami to upend the incumbent, who maintains an edge for now.