Wisconsin 2012 Recall
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Vermont Governor - Milne vs. Shumlin


Scott Milne

Scott Milne (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Peter Shumlin

Peter Shumlin (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Vermont Snapshot

RCP Ranking: Likely Dem

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

President | Governor | Senate
2010: Governor | Senate
2008: President | Governor
2006: Governor | Senate | VT-1
2004: President | Governor

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEMilne (R)Shumlin (D)Spread
Final Results------45.346.4Shumlin +1.1
CBS News/NYT/YouGov*10/16 - 10/23329 LV8.03547Shumlin +12
CBS News/NYT/YouGov*9/20 - 10/1328 LV6.02946Shumlin +17
CBS News/NYT/YouGov*8/18 - 9/2430 LV6.03545Shumlin +10
Rasmussen Reports8/27 - 8/28700 LV4.03648Shumlin +12
CBS News/NYT/YouGov*7/5 - 7/24512 RV--2752Shumlin +25

Race Analysis

Although Vermont is a solidly Democratic state at the presidential level, at the state level there is still a vestigial Republican Party capable of winning statewide races. This is usually aided by a split between the Democratic Party and the state's unusually strong Progressive Party, which considers the Democrats to be too conservative.

For most of the 2000s, the state was governed by Jim Douglas, a moderate Republican. But Douglas retired in 2010, and his lieutenant governor, Brian Dubie, was unable to hold the governorship. Gov. Peter Shumlin’s numbers are weak this cycle, but it seems unlikely that Scott Milne will be able to pull off the upset.