|Poll||Date||Sample||MoE||Milne (R)||Shumlin (D)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||--||45.3||46.4||Shumlin +1.1|
|CBS News/NYT/YouGov*||10/16 - 10/23||329 LV||8.0||35||47||Shumlin +12|
|CBS News/NYT/YouGov*||9/20 - 10/1||328 LV||6.0||29||46||Shumlin +17|
|CBS News/NYT/YouGov*||8/18 - 9/2||430 LV||6.0||35||45||Shumlin +10|
|Rasmussen Reports||8/27 - 8/28||700 LV||4.0||36||48||Shumlin +12|
|CBS News/NYT/YouGov*||7/5 - 7/24||512 RV||--||27||52||Shumlin +25|
Although Vermont is a solidly Democratic state at the presidential level, at the state level there is still a vestigial Republican Party capable of winning statewide races. This is usually aided by a split between the Democratic Party and the state's unusually strong Progressive Party, which considers the Democrats to be too conservative.
For most of the 2000s, the state was governed by Jim Douglas, a moderate Republican. But Douglas retired in 2010, and his lieutenant governor, Brian Dubie, was unable to hold the governorship. Gov. Peter Shumlin’s numbers are weak this cycle, but it seems unlikely that Scott Milne will be able to pull off the upset.