Wisconsin 2012 Recall
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Tennessee Governor - Haslam vs. Brown

Candidates

Charles Brown

Charles Brown (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Bill Haslam

Bill Haslam (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Tennessee Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Safe GOP
2014 Key Races: Senate

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | Senate | TN-4
2010Governor | TN-4 | TN-5 | TN-6 | TN-8
2008: President | Senate
2006: Governor | Senate
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEBrown (D)Haslam (R)Spread
Final Results------22.870.3Haslam +47.5
RCP Average8/11 - 10/23----30.056.5Haslam +26.5
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/23974 LV5.03058Haslam +28
Rasmussen Reports8/11 - 8/12750 LV3.03055Haslam +25

All Tennessee Governor - Haslam vs. Brown Polling Data

Race Analysis

Tennessee was long something of an anomaly in the South. It had a strong Republican presence in the eastern portion of the state (and to a lesser extent in the west/south/central regions), which allowed it to maintain a sizeable presence in the state. Unlike the rest of the South, Democratic presidential candidates rarely received more than 55 percent of the vote there, and in good Republican years, they even lost.

So Tennessee was one of the first states in the South to align with the GOP and was the first to elect two Republican senators. It also occasionally elected Republican governors, even during the Jim Crow era: It did so in 1880, 1910, 1912 and 1920.

Since Jim Crow ended, the state has tended to alternate the governorship between the parties: Democrats from 1966-1970, 1974-1978, 1986-1994 and 2002-2010, with Republicans in the gaps. This year, the Republican governor, Bill Haslam, is considered a safe bet for re-election.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEBrown (D)Haslam (R)Spread
Final Results------22.870.3Haslam +47.5
RCP Average8/11 - 10/23----30.056.5Haslam +26.5
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/23974 LV5.03058Haslam +28
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/11007 LV4.02860Haslam +32
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/21056 LV4.02956Haslam +27
Rasmussen Reports8/11 - 8/12750 LV3.03055Haslam +25