Wisconsin 2012 Recall
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Pennsylvania Governor - Corbett vs. Wolf

Candidates

Tom Corbett

Tom Corbett (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Tom Wolf

Tom Wolf (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Pennsylvania Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Likely Dem 
2014 Key Races:
 PA-6 | PA-8

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | Senate | PA-6 | PA-8 | PA-12
2010: Governor | Senate | House
2008: President | PA-3 | PA-10 | PA-11 
2006: Senate | Governor | PA-4 | PA-6 | PA-7 | PA-8 | PA-10
2004: President | Senate | PA-13

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoECorbett (R)Wolf (D)Spread
Final Results------45.154.9Wolf +9.8
RCP Average10/16 - 10/29----40.251.2Wolf +11.0
Morning Call10/27 - 10/29409 LV5.03951Wolf +12
Magellan (R)10/27 - 10/281433 LV2.64350Wolf +7
Harper (R)10/26 - 10/27680 LV3.84050Wolf +10
Franklin & Marshall10/20 - 10/26326 LV5.14053Wolf +13
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/233111 LV3.03952Wolf +13

All Pennsylvania Governor - Corbett vs. Wolf Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Pennsylvania Governor - Corbett vs. Wolf
40.2Corbett (R)
51.2Wolf (D)+11.0
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Race Analysis

10/19/14 -- Republicans do seem to be coming home for Corbett in the closing days of this election, helping to halve what was once a 22-point gap. But that's probably not enough to help him get it done.

10/7/14 -- Corbett’s position has improved somewhat, but it is nowhere near enough to call this race competitive. Wolf remains favored to become the next governor of the state.

----------Race Preview----------

The 2010s have been rough on some of the most well-worn tropes in elections. The North Carolina Senate seat currently occupied by Richard Burr switches parties every six years (true since the 1970s) -- until it didn’t in 2010. Virginia always elected a governor from the opposite party of the one holding the White House (true since the 1970s) -- until it didn’t in 2013. And the Pennsylvania governorship switches parties every eight years. The latter has been true since 1954, when Pennsylvania elected only its fourth Democratic governor since the close of the Civil War.

But it looks as if that rule might not hold in 2014. In 2010, Attorney General Tom Corbett defeated Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) Executive Dan Onorato by nearly 10 points. But cuts to education and ties to the Penn State sex abuse scandal have sapped Corbett’s popularity, and he is in dire shape in the polls against Democratic businessman Tom Wolf.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoECorbett (R)Wolf (D)Spread
Final Results------45.154.9Wolf +9.8
RCP Average10/16 - 10/29----40.251.2Wolf +11.0
Morning Call10/27 - 10/29409 LV5.03951Wolf +12
Magellan (R)10/27 - 10/281433 LV2.64350Wolf +7
Harper (R)10/26 - 10/27680 LV3.84050Wolf +10
Franklin & Marshall10/20 - 10/26326 LV5.14053Wolf +13
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/233111 LV3.03952Wolf +13
Magellan (R)10/13 - 10/141131 LV2.94249Wolf +7
Quinnipiac9/30 - 10/5907 LV3.33855Wolf +17
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/13283 LV2.04150Wolf +9
Mercyhurst University9/15 - 9/24479 RV4.52843Wolf +15
Franklin & Marshall9/15 - 9/22231 LV6.43757Wolf +20
Magellan (R)9/17 - 9/181120 LV2.94049Wolf +9
Morning Call9/16 - 9/18429 LV5.03354Wolf +21
Quinnipiac9/3 - 9/81161 LV2.93559Wolf +24
Harper (R)9/2 - 9/3665 LV3.24152Wolf +11
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/23560 LV2.03950Wolf +11
Franklin & Marshall8/18 - 8/25520 RV4.32449Wolf +25
Magellan (R)7/30 - 7/311214 LV2.83850Wolf +12
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/244150 RV--3952Wolf +13
Franklin & Marshall6/23 - 6/29502 RV4.42547Wolf +22
Quinnipiac5/29 - 6/21308 RV2.73353Wolf +20
PPP (D)5/30 - 6/1835 RV3.43055Wolf +25
Rasmussen Reports5/27 - 5/28750 LV4.03151Wolf +20
Quinnipiac2/19 - 2/241405 RV2.63352Wolf +19
Quinnipiac12/11 - 12/16RV--3744Wolf +7
PPP (D)11/22 - 11/25693 RV3.73244Wolf +12
Quinnipiac3/6 - 3/11RV--3939Tie
PPP (D)3/8 - 3/10504 RV4.43342Wolf +9
PPP (D)1/4 - 1/6675 RV3.84129Corbett +12