Wisconsin 2012 Recall
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Oregon Governor - Richardson vs. Kitzhaber

Candidates

John Kitzhaber

John Kitzhaber (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Dennis Richardson

Dennis Richardson (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Oregon Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Leans Dem
2014 Key Races: Senate | OR-5

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | OR-4
2010Governor | Senate | OR-1 | OR-4 | OR-5
2008: President | Senate
2006: Governor
2004: President | Senate

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEKitzhaber (D)Richardson (R)Spread
Final Results------49.844.7Kitzhaber +5.1
RCP Average10/16 - 10/27----47.740.0Kitzhaber +7.7
The Oregonian/Elway10/26 - 10/27403 LV5.04538Kitzhaber +7
SurveyUSA10/23 - 10/27552 LV4.35040Kitzhaber +10
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/231421 LV4.04842Kitzhaber +6

All Oregon Governor - Richardson vs. Kitzhaber Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Oregon Governor - Richardson vs. Kitzhaber
47.7Kitzhaber (D)+7.7
40.0Richardson (R)
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Race Analysis

11/3/14 -- Kitzhaber seems to have weathered the storm from the revelations about his fiancee's previous marriage, but some more polling here would be nice. A surprise isn't out of the question.

10/19/14 -- The revelation that Kitzhaber's fiancee had once been involved in an arranged marriage to help someone gain citizenship might make this race interesting, but probably not. Unless we get some contrary polling in the next few weeks, he remains a solid favorite.

10/1/14 -- Things have tightened up a bit here, but Kitzhaber still has a clear edge as voting begins. It would likely take a true wave to knock him out.

----------Race Preview----------

Oregon was admitted to the Union as a free state. Most of its population is wedged into the Willamette Valley, between the Coastal Range and the Cascade Mountains. The state was Republican throughout its first 80 years, but it was in the progressive Republican camp. Once progressives became a permanent part of the Democratic coalition, the state moved toward the Democrats.

The state is also the home to the second-longest Republican gubernatorial losing streak in the country. From 1974 through the present, only one Republican has won the governorship: Victor Atiyeh won in 1978 and again in 1982.

Oregon is not so far to the left that a Republican cannot win here -- it was a close state in the 2000 and 2004 presidential races, and it elected a Republican senator from 1996 to 2008. Many Republicans thought that they could finally recapture the governor’s mansion in 2010, when Democrats nominated former Gov. John Kitzhaber, while Republicans turned to former NBA player Chris Dudley, a shot-blocker extraordinaire who also holds the NBA record for most consecutive missed free throws. Although Dudley led in most polls, he nevertheless fell behind Kitzhaber at the end and lost by a point. This time, Republicans have gone with state Rep. Dennis Richardson. The race is on the outskirts of competitiveness.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEKitzhaber (D)Richardson (R)Spread
Final Results------49.844.7Kitzhaber +5.1
RCP Average10/16 - 10/27----47.740.0Kitzhaber +7.7
The Oregonian/Elway10/26 - 10/27403 LV5.04538Kitzhaber +7
SurveyUSA10/23 - 10/27552 LV4.35040Kitzhaber +10
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/231421 LV4.04842Kitzhaber +6
SurveyUSA10/16 - 10/19561 LV4.25138Kitzhaber +13
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/11508 LV3.04942Kitzhaber +7
SurveyUSA9/22 - 9/24568 LV4.25038Kitzhaber +12
Rasmussen Reports9/2 - 9/3750 LV4.04838Kitzhaber +10
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/21541 LV4.04842Kitzhaber +6
SurveyUSA8/1 - 8/5564 LV4.24836Kitzhaber +12
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/242082 RV--5242Kitzhaber +10
SurveyUSA6/5 - 6/9560 LV4.24835Kitzhaber +13
PPP (D)5/22 - 5/27956 RV3.24936Kitzhaber +13
DHM Research/OPB4/30 - 5/2400 RV4.94836Kitzhaber +12
Vox Populi/Daily Caller (R)4/28 - 4/30618 RV3.94444Tie
Harper (R)4/1 - 4/2670 LV3.94643Kitzhaber +3