Wisconsin 2012 Recall
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Oklahoma Governor - Fallin vs. Dorman

Candidates

Joe Dorman

Joe Dorman (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Mary Fallin

Mary Fallin (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Oklahoma Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Likely GOP
2014 Key Races: Senate | Senate (Special)

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012: President | OK-2
2010Governor | SenateOK-2
2008: President | Senate
2006: Governor
2004: President | Senate | OK-1

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEDorman (D)Fallin (R)Spread
Final Results------41.055.8Fallin +14.8
RCP Average7/20 - 10/29----34.349.3Fallin +15.0
Sooner Poll/News 9/News on 6*10/25 - 10/29949 LV3.24048Fallin +8
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/23995 LV5.03256Fallin +24
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates (R)*7/20 - 7/25500 RV4.33144Fallin +13

All Oklahoma Governor - Fallin vs. Dorman Polling Data

Race Analysis

Although the politics of the Sooner State may seem monolithic -- no Democratic presidential candidate has carried a county since 2000 -- they are actually similar to the politics of many Southern states 30 years ago. There’s an urban/rural divide, with the two larger cities and their suburbs leaning heavily toward the Republicans. There are also geographic divides: The northwest was settled by Kansans and was historically Republican (the panhandle counties gave Obama about 10 percent of the vote in 2008), while the southeast is more Democratic.

These divides explain much of why Oklahoma had a Democratic governor for the 2000s. In 2002, Rep. Steve Largent, a darling of Christian conservatives, was the odds-on favorite to win the governor’s mansion. But Largent was caught cursing at a reporter on camera, which did not play well with his base. In addition, a cockfighting ban was on the ballot, which drew rural Democrats to the polls. Largent had big wins in Tulsa and Oklahoma counties, as well as in the northern tier of counties, but Democrat Brad Henry ran exceptionally well in the rural areas, and upset Largent.

An upset is possible this year as well, but it’s more unlikely. Republican Gov. Mary Fallin hasn’t had the smoothest tenure, but there aren’t many signs that she’s reached the point where state Rep. Joe Dorman has much of a chance against her.  She’s the favorite for re-election.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEDorman (D)Fallin (R)Spread
Final Results------41.055.8Fallin +14.8
RCP Average7/20 - 10/29----34.349.3Fallin +15.0
Sooner Poll/News 9/News on 6*10/25 - 10/29949 LV3.24048Fallin +8
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/23995 LV5.03256Fallin +24
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/11244 LV3.03358Fallin +25
Sooner Poll/News 9/News on 6*9/27 - 9/29400 LV4.93650Fallin +14
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/2821 LV5.03553Fallin +18
Sooner Poll/News 9/News on 6*8/28 - 8/30603 LV4.03250Fallin +18
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates (R)*7/20 - 7/25500 RV4.33144Fallin +13
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/241312 RV--4049Fallin +9
Rasmussen Reports7/15 - 7/16750 LV4.04045Fallin +5