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Ohio Governor - Kasich vs. FitzGerald

Candidates

Ed FitzGerald

Ed FitzGerald (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

John Kasich

John Kasich (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Ohio Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Safe GOP
2014 Key Races: OH-6 | OH-14

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | SenateOH-6 | OH-7 | OH-16
2010Governor | Senate | OH-1 | OH-6 | OH-10 | OH-12 | OH-13 |OH-15 | OH-16 | OH-18
2008: President | OH-1 | OH-2 | OH-15 | OH-16
2006: Sen | Gov | OH-1 | OH-2 | OH-15 | OH-18
2004: President | Senate

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEFitzGerald (D)Kasich (R)Spread
Final Results------32.963.8Kasich +30.9
RCP Average10/16 - 10/31----35.055.7Kasich +20.7
Columbus Dispatch*10/22 - 10/311009 LV3.33462Kasich +28
FOX News10/28 - 10/30803 LV3.03651Kasich +15
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/232728 LV3.03554Kasich +19

All Ohio Governor - Kasich vs. FitzGerald Polling Data

Race Analysis

9/18/14 -- Democrats had hoped to turn this race into a competitive one, but their gubernatorial candidate has been beset with problems from the outset of his campaign. The latest allegation – that he was found in a parked car with a woman who is not his wife, at a time that he was not in possession of a valid driver’s license – is prompting talk of Democrats abandoning the ticket and focusing on downstate races.

----------Race Preview----------

2006 saw one of the largest gubernatorial blowouts in Ohio gubernatorial history, as Congressman Ted Strickland blew out Republican Secretary of State Ken Blackwell by a 60-37 margin. Blackwell was seen as a rising star by state and national Republicans, but the national Democratic tide, combined with Blackwell’s across-the-board conservatism, led to a huge defeat in this swing state.

But Strickland’s tenure as governor was turbulent, as the state shed both jobs and population. He lost in 2010 -- albeit by a narrow margin -- to former congressman John Kasich, who had been employed as a partner at Lehman Brothers, the investment firm whose collapse precipitated the financial system collapse of 2008.

Kasich’s term likewise got off to a rocky start, as his attempts to weaken public employee labor unions was roundly rejected by Ohio voters in a referendum. But his approval ratings rebounded somewhat, while Democratic nominee Ed FitzGerald, the Cuyahoga (Cleveland) County executive, saw his campaign get off to a rough start as well. Kasich maintains a solid lead in the polls, but has never really cracked the 50 percent mark. This is a competitive race, but Kasich has the edge.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEFitzGerald (D)Kasich (R)Spread
Final Results------32.963.8Kasich +30.9
RCP Average10/16 - 10/31----35.055.7Kasich +20.7
Columbus Dispatch*10/22 - 10/311009 LV3.33462Kasich +28
FOX News10/28 - 10/30803 LV3.03651Kasich +15
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/232728 LV3.03554Kasich +19
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/13082 LV2.03652Kasich +16
Quinnipiac9/24 - 9/29999 LV3.13557Kasich +22
Columbus Dispatch*9/3 - 9/121185 RV2.72959Kasich +30
Rasmussen Reports9/8 - 9/9780 LV4.03050Kasich +20
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/22978 LV3.03750Kasich +13
Quinnipiac7/24 - 7/281366 RV2.73648Kasich +12
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/243624 RV--4349Kasich +6
Quinnipiac5/7 - 5/121174 RV2.93550Kasich +15
Rasmussen Reports5/7 - 5/8750 LV4.03845Kasich +7
SurveyUSA*4/24 - 4/28618 LV4.03646Kasich +10
Magellan Strategies (R)4/14 - 4/15857 LV3.44147Kasich +6
Quinnipiac2/12 - 2/171370 RV2.73843Kasich +5
Quinnipiac11/19 - 11/241361 RV2.73744Kasich +7
PPP (D)8/16 - 8/19551 RV4.23835FitzGerald +3
Quinnipiac6/18 - 6/23941 RV3.23347Kasich +14
Quinnipiac4/10 - 4/151138 RV2.93746Kasich +9
Quinnipiac2/21 - 2/261011 RV3.13545Kasich +10