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New York Governor - Astorino vs. Cuomo

Candidates

Rob Astorino

Rob Astorino (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Andrew Cuomo

Andrew Cuomo (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

New York Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Safe Dem
2014 Key Races: NY-1 | NY-4 | NY-11 | NY-18 | NY-19 | NY-21 | NY-23 | NY-24

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | Senate | House
2010Gov | Sen | Sen (Special) | House
2008: President | NY-13 | NY-25 | NY-26 | NY-29
2006: Governor | NY-19 | NY-20 | NY-24 | NY-25
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEAstorino (R)Cuomo (D)Spread
Final Results------40.654.0Cuomo +13.4
RCP Average10/1 - 10/28----32.055.3Cuomo +23.3
NBC NY/WSJ/Marist*10/26 - 10/28503 LV4.43056Cuomo +26
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/234506 LV2.03156Cuomo +25
Siena*10/16 - 10/20748 LV3.63354Cuomo +21
Quinnipiac10/1 - 10/61153 LV2.93455Cuomo +21

All New York Governor - Astorino vs. Cuomo Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
New York Governor - Astorino vs. Cuomo
32.0Astorino (R)
55.3Cuomo (D)+23.3
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Race Analysis

10/7/14 -- Cuomo has been trending downward, but there almost certainly isn’t enough time for Astorino to catch him.

----------Race Preview----------

For years, the stepping stone to a major party nomination was to be elected governor of New York. From 1876 until 1948, governors of the state were on the ticket as president or vice president in 14 of 19 elections (other New Yorkers were on tickets in two of the remaining five elections). But as the years wore on, New York's prominence faded, and California and Texas replaced the Empire State as the home of Presidents.

In 2006, the state overwhelmingly elected Eliot Spitzer governor. But Spitzer was caught up in a prostitution scandal, and the reins of power were transferred to his lieutenant governor, David Paterson. Then Paterson's popularity cratered, leaving an opening for Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to seek the governor's mansion in 2010.

Republicans nominated real estate developer Carl Paladino, whose missteps made it impossible for him to take advantage of the otherwise favorable climate for Republicans. Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, the Republicans’ nominee this cycle, is a clear step up from Paladino, but still seems unlikely to unseat Cuomo.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEAstorino (R)Cuomo (D)Spread
Final Results------40.654.0Cuomo +13.4
RCP Average10/1 - 10/28----32.055.3Cuomo +23.3
NBC NY/WSJ/Marist*10/26 - 10/28503 LV4.43056Cuomo +26
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/234506 LV2.03156Cuomo +25
Siena*10/16 - 10/20748 LV3.63354Cuomo +21
Quinnipiac10/1 - 10/61153 LV2.93455Cuomo +21
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/15122 LV2.03057Cuomo +27
Rasmussen Reports9/22 - 9/23825 LV4.03249Cuomo +17
Siena*9/18 - 9/23809 LV3.42756Cuomo +29
NBC NY/WSJ/Marist*9/17 - 9/21517 LV4.32954Cuomo +25
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/25645 LV2.02852Cuomo +24
Quinnipiac8/14 - 8/171034 RV3.12856Cuomo +28
Siena*8/4 - 8/7863 LV3.32658Cuomo +32
NBC NY/WSJ/Marist*7/28 - 7/31852 RV3.42354Cuomo +31
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/246788 RV--3256Cuomo +24
Siena*7/13 - 7/16774 LV3.52360Cuomo +37
NBC NY/WSJ/Marist*6/23 - 7/1673 RV3.82459Cuomo +35
Siena*6/8 - 6/12835 RV3.42157Cuomo +36
Quinnipiac5/14 - 5/191129 RV2.92857Cuomo +29
Siena4/12 - 4/17772 RV3.52858Cuomo +30
Siena3/16 - 3/20813 RV3.42661Cuomo +35
NBC NY/WSJ/Marist2/28 - 3/3658 RV3.82565Cuomo +40
Siena2/16 - 2/20802 RV3.52264Cuomo +42
Quinnipiac2/6 - 2/101488 RV2.52458Cuomo +34
Siena1/12 - 1/16808 RV3.41967Cuomo +48
Quinnipiac11/20 - 11/241337 RV2.72556Cuomo +31
NBC NY/WSJ/Marist11/18 - 11/20333 RV5.42365Cuomo +42
Siena11/11 - 11/14806 RV3.52463Cuomo +39