Wisconsin 2012 Recall
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N.H. Governor - Havenstein vs. Hassan

Candidates

Maggie Hassan

Maggie Hassan (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Walt Havenstein

Walt Havenstein (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

New Hampshire Snapshot

RCP Average: 
RCP Ranking: Toss Up
2014 Key Races: Senate | NH-1 | NH-2

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | Governor | NH-1 | NH-2
2010Governor | Senate | NH-1 | NH-2
2008: President | Senate | NH-1
2006: Governor | NH-2
2004: President | Senate | NH-1 | NH-2

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEHassan (D)Havenstein (R)Spread
Final Results------52.647.4Hassan +5.2
RCP Average10/27 - 11/3----49.245.7Hassan +3.5
PPP (D)11/1 - 11/31690 LV2.45146Hassan +5
WMUR/UNH10/29 - 11/2757 LV3.65049Hassan +1
New England College10/31 - 11/11526 LV2.55144Hassan +7
Rasmussen Reports10/29 - 10/30940 LV3.05142Hassan +9
ARG10/27 - 10/29600 LV4.04846Hassan +2
Vox Populi (R)10/27 - 10/28638 LV3.94447Havenstein +3

All N.H. Governor - Havenstein vs. Hassan Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
N.H. Governor - Havenstein vs. Hassan
49.2Hassan (D)+3.5
45.7Havenstein (R)
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Race Analysis

11/3/14 -- The latest UNH poll shows a one-point Hassan lead. The state has surprised before: People didn't think that Republicans would lose the governor's mansion in 2004, either. Hassan has the edge, but it is small.

10/28/14 -- For now, the New England College poll looks like an outlier, but Hassan's lead -- once over 21 points -- has been steadily whittled away. She could be in for a closer call than expected, but she's still in control.

10/7/14 -- Havenstein is catching up, but Hassan is at 50 percent. She can’t breathe easy, but isn’t overwhelmingly vulnerable either.

----------Race Preview----------

New Hampshire has always been an oddity. For much of the 19th century it was a lone bastion of Democratic politics in New England, and for most of the later 20th century, it was the sole rock-ribbed Republican state in the area. Immigrants fleeing Massachusetts’ high tax rates were attracted to the state’s austere fiscal policy and low tax rates, to the point that just about every New Hampshire politician today takes “The Pledge” not to raise taxes.

The state has also been unique in that it has held the first-in-the-nation primary for decades, allowing it a huge say in who becomes president. Sometimes it has gotten it very wrong -- as when New Hampshire Democrats voted for Herbert Hoover as their nominee in 1920 -- but it has overall done a much better job of picking the eventual winner than the Iowa caucuses.

In 2004, as most of the country was moving toward George W. Bush and the Republicans, New Hampshire voted for John Kerry and threw out its Republican governor, whom it had elected in 2002 by a 20-point margin. The new governor, John Lynch, was re-elected in 2006 with 74 percent of the vote, the highest vote total since Democrat Isaac Hill defeated Joseph Healy of the newly formed Whig Party, 81 percent-8 percent, in 1836. Lynch’s 2008 total was a similarly high 70 percent.

Lynch found himself in a much closer battle in 2010 against an unknown Republican. He opted to retire in 2012. Democrats nominated Senate Majority Leader Maggie Hassan, while Republicans opted for Ovide Lamontagne, a rock-ribbed conservative who, in 1996, became only the sixth Republican gubernatorial nominee to lose an election since 1924. Hassan won by 12 points in 2012. Her opponent for 2014 is businessman Walt Havenstein. Polls have shown her with a solid, although not overwhelming, lead in this race.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEHassan (D)Havenstein (R)Spread
Final Results------52.647.4Hassan +5.2
RCP Average10/27 - 11/3----49.245.7Hassan +3.5
PPP (D)11/1 - 11/31690 LV2.45146Hassan +5
WMUR/UNH10/29 - 11/2757 LV3.65049Hassan +1
New England College10/31 - 11/11526 LV2.55144Hassan +7
Rasmussen Reports10/29 - 10/30940 LV3.05142Hassan +9
ARG10/27 - 10/29600 LV4.04846Hassan +2
Vox Populi (R)10/27 - 10/28638 LV3.94447Havenstein +3
WMUR/UNH10/22 - 10/26555 LV4.25237Hassan +15
New England College10/24 - 10/241132 LV2.94747Tie
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/231042 LV4.04738Hassan +9
ARG10/19 - 10/22600 LV4.05343Hassan +10
CNN/Opinion Research10/18 - 10/21645 LV4.05145Hassan +6
UMass Lowell/7News10/15 - 10/21643 LV4.54945Hassan +4
Suffolk/Boston Herald10/16 - 10/19500 LV4.44939Hassan +10
New England College10/16 - 10/16921 LV3.25143Hassan +8
New England College10/9 - 10/91081 LV3.04944Hassan +5
High Point/SurveyUSA10/4 - 10/8824 LV3.55042Hassan +8
WMUR/UNH9/29 - 10/5532 LV4.24636Hassan +10
New England College10/3 - 10/31286 LV2.75141Hassan +10
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/11260 LV3.04939Hassan +10
ARG9/27 - 9/29600 LV4.05540Hassan +15
New England College9/26 - 9/261331 LV2.74844Hassan +4
New England College9/19 - 9/201494 LV2.55240Hassan +12
Vox Populi (R)9/15 - 9/16550 RV4.24743Hassan +4
ARG9/12 - 9/15LV--5139Hassan +12
New England College9/10 - 9/11630 LV4.05136Hassan +15
Rasmussen Reports9/10 - 9/11750 LV4.05140Hassan +11
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/21159 LV4.05134Hassan +17
WMUR/UNH8/7 - 8/17609 LV4.04932Hassan +17
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/241246 RV--5338Hassan +15
WMUR/UNH6/19 - 7/1509 LV4.35731Hassan +26
Suffolk/Boston Herald*6/14 - 6/18800 LV3.55119Hassan +32
ARG6/14 - 6/18540 RV4.24532Hassan +13
Vox Populi (R)5/14 - 5/15707 RV3.64330Hassan +13
Dartmouth4/21 - 4/25412 RV4.84019Hassan +21
WMUR/UNH4/1 - 4/9387 LV5.04919Hassan +30