Wisconsin 2012 Recall
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Minnesota Governor - Johnson vs. Dayton

Candidates

Mark Dayton

Mark Dayton (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Jeff Johnson

Jeff Johnson (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Minnesota Snapshot

RCP Average: 
RCP Ranking: Leans Dem
2014 Key Races: Sen | MN-1 | MN-2 | MN-7 | MN-8

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | Senate | MN-6 | MN-8
2010: Governor | MN-1 | MN-6 | MN-7 | MN-8
2008: President | Senate | MN-3 | MN-6 
2006: Senate | Governor | MN-6 
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEDayton (D)Johnson (R)Spread
Final Results------50.144.5Dayton +5.6
RCP Average10/16 - 10/30----47.340.3Dayton +7.0
KSTP/SurveyUSA*10/27 - 10/30596 LV4.14742Dayton +5
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/232430 LV3.05041Dayton +9
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon*10/20 - 10/22800 LV3.54538Dayton +7

All Minnesota Governor - Johnson vs. Dayton Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Minnesota Governor - Johnson vs. Dayton
47.3Dayton (D)+7.0
40.3Johnson (R)
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Race Analysis

11/3/14 -- The recent SurveyUSA poll might give Dayton some cause for concern but shouldn't give him outright heartburn. He remains favored to win re-election, albeit perhaps by a smaller margin than expected.

10/7/14 -- Dayton is maintaining a comfortable lead. He's below 50 percent, but not by much.

----------Race Preview----------

Today there is probably no state more firmly associated with the Democratic Party than Minnesota. Yet for most of this state's history, there was no Democratic Party to speak of there. It was dominated by Republicans, although they were Republicans decidedly from the party's progressive wing.

After the New Deal, these progressives increasingly aligned themselves with the Democratic Party. When Hubert Humphrey fused the party with the Farmer-Labor alliance, it created the modern DFL, which has given us some of the most memorable standard-bearers for liberalism in modern times: Humphrey, Eugene McCarthy, Walter Mondale and Paul Wellstone. At one point, the state’s Republicans actually renamed themselves the "Independent Republicans" to avoid association with the national party.

But like much of the Upper Midwest, the state moved toward the Republicans in the 1990s; it is only a few points more Democratic than the rest of the country today. At the same time, the state retained a quirky character: It is, after all, the place that gave us Gov. Jesse Ventura and Sen. Al Franken.

The Democrats won the governorship in 2010 for the first time since 1986, when former senator Mark Dayton won a three-way race against an embattled Republican nominee and an Independent. Dayton starts out this cycle with an edge, although a big enough wave could bring him down.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEDayton (D)Johnson (R)Spread
Final Results------50.144.5Dayton +5.6
RCP Average10/16 - 10/30----47.340.3Dayton +7.0
KSTP/SurveyUSA*10/27 - 10/30596 LV4.14742Dayton +5
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/232430 LV3.05041Dayton +9
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon*10/20 - 10/22800 LV3.54538Dayton +7
KSTP/SurveyUSA*10/14 - 10/16597 LV4.15040Dayton +10
KSTP/SurveyUSA*9/30 - 10/2577 LV4.15139Dayton +12
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/12562 LV2.04942Dayton +7
Rasmussen Reports9/29 - 9/30750 LV4.05040Dayton +10
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon*9/8 - 9/10800 LV3.54533Dayton +12
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/23607 LV2.04841Dayton +7
KSTP/SurveyUSA*8/19 - 8/21600 LV4.14940Dayton +9
Rasmussen Reports8/13 - 8/14750 LV4.04941Dayton +8
PPP (D)6/12 - 6/15633 RV3.94736Dayton +11
KSTP/SurveyUSA*6/5 - 6/91017 LV3.14640Dayton +6
Suffolk4/24 - 4/28800 LV3.54430Dayton +14
KSTP/SurveyUSA2/25 - 2/27545 RV4.35234Dayton +18
PPP (D)10/27 - 10/29895 RV3.34837Dayton +11
PPP (D)5/17 - 5/19712 RV3.75234Dayton +18
PPP (D)1/18 - 1/201065 RV3.05329Dayton +24