Wisconsin 2012 Recall
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Michigan Governor - Snyder vs. Schauer

Candidates

Mark Schauer

Mark Schauer (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Rick Snyder

Rick Snyder (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Michigan Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Toss Up
2014 Key Races: Senate | MI-1 | MI-4MI-6 | MI-7 | MI-8 | MI-11

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | Senate | MI-1 | MI-3 | MI-11
2010Governor | MI-1 | MI-7 | MI-9 | MI-15
2008: President | MI-7 | MI-9
2006: Senate | Governor
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoESchauer (D)Snyder (R)Spread
Final Results------46.851.0Snyder +4.2
RCP Average10/16 - 11/3----44.346.3Snyder +2.0
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell*11/3 - 11/31310 LV2.74749Snyder +2
PPP (D)*11/1 - 11/2914 LV3.24546Snyder +1
EPIC-MRA10/26 - 10/28600 LV4.04345Snyder +2
Detroit News10/22 - 10/24600 LV4.04045Snyder +5
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/232394 LV3.04544Schauer +1
Rasmussen Reports10/20 - 10/221000 LV3.04649Snyder +3

All Michigan Governor - Snyder vs. Schauer Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Michigan Governor - Snyder vs. Schauer
44.3Schauer (D)
46.3Snyder (R)+2.0
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Race Analysis

11/3/14 -- Snyder's lead is small, but stable. This is a tossup, but if you are looking to put a thumb on the scale, it is probably for the incumbent.

10/28/14 -- Snyder seems to be opening up a lead over Schauer. He's not out of the woods yet, but he's in much better shape than he was two months ago.

10/19/14 -- Snyder's lead is small but steady, although it is mostly built upon a decline in Schauer's standing. It remains to be seen if he can improve his standing beyond 45 percent or so.

10/7/14 -- Snyder seems to be opening up a lead here. Will it last? It is hard to say, but this race is on the cusp of leaning Republican.

----------Race Preview----------

The story of recent Michigan politics can be summarized in three letters: U.A.W. In the wake of the sit-down strikes of the 1930s, what was once one of the most solidly Republican states in the Union (71 percent for Hoover in 1928) quickly became competitive. The state eventually settled into a split between “outstate” Michigan, which retained its Republican heritage, and Detroit, which was solidly Democratic. The suburbs provided a swing vote, but like most Northern suburbs, they moved toward the Democrats in the 1990s and took the state along with them.

Michigan suffered from a one-state recession in the 2000s. Gov. Jennifer Granholm was not particularly popular, but she managed a come-from-behind re-election win against Republican Dick DeVos in 2006. In 2010, Rick Snyder, who styled himself as “one tough nerd,” won a massive 18 percent victory in the state – the largest margin for a non-incumbent since Kim Sigler’s win in 1946.

But Sigler’s win includes a cautionary tale. He was carried into office by the Republican wave, and was carried out two years later, losing by a modest margin to Democrat G. Mennen “Soapy” Williams. Snyder likewise finds himself in a close race with former Rep. Mark Schauer. While the national mood seems like it will eventually buoy Snyder, governor’s races are quirky, and he could wind up losing this one.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoESchauer (D)Snyder (R)Spread
Final Results------46.851.0Snyder +4.2
RCP Average10/16 - 11/3----44.346.3Snyder +2.0
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell*11/3 - 11/31310 LV2.74749Snyder +2
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell*11/2 - 11/21224 LV2.84747Tie
PPP (D)*11/1 - 11/2914 LV3.24546Snyder +1
EPIC-MRA10/26 - 10/28600 LV4.04345Snyder +2
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell*10/27 - 10/271159 LV2.94348Snyder +5
Detroit News10/22 - 10/24600 LV4.04045Snyder +5
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/232394 LV3.04544Schauer +1
Rasmussen Reports10/20 - 10/221000 LV3.04649Snyder +3
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell*10/19 - 10/19919 LV3.24648Snyder +2
EPIC-MRA10/17 - 10/19600 LV4.03947Snyder +8
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell*10/12 - 10/121340 LV2.74447Snyder +3
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell*10/9 - 10/91306 LV2.74647Snyder +1
Detroit News*10/2 - 10/4600 LV4.03745Snyder +8
MRG (R)9/30 - 10/1600 LV4.04146Snyder +5
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/12560 LV2.04644Schauer +2
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell*9/29 - 9/291178 LV2.94246Snyder +4
EPIC-MRA*9/25 - 9/29600 LV4.03945Snyder +6
Target-Insyght/MIRS9/22 - 9/24600 LV4.04041Snyder +1
WeAskAmerica*9/18 - 9/191182 LV3.04343Tie
Rasmussen Reports9/17 - 9/18750 LV4.04147Snyder +6
Mitchell Research*9/14 - 9/14829 LV3.44146Snyder +5
Vanguard/Denno Research (D)9/11 - 9/13600 LV4.04043Snyder +3
USA Today/Suffolk*9/6 - 9/10500 LV4.44543Schauer +2
PPP (D)9/4 - 9/7687 LV3.74446Snyder +2
Detroit News9/3 - 9/5600 LV4.04244Snyder +2
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/22897 LV3.04344Snyder +1
Mitchell Research8/27 - 8/271004 LV3.14647Snyder +1
EPIC-MRA8/22 - 8/25600 LV4.04543Schauer +2
Mitchell Research8/5 - 8/5626 LV5.04247Snyder +5
MRG (R)7/26 - 7/30600 LV4.04445Snyder +1
Rasmussen Reports7/28 - 7/29750 LV4.04245Snyder +3
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/243812 RV--4346Snyder +3
Mitchell Research7/7 - 7/17600 LV4.03943Snyder +4
EPIC-MRA7/12 - 7/15600 LV4.04346Snyder +3
Vanguard/Denno Research (D)7/9 - 7/11600 LV4.03543Snyder +8
NBC News/Marist7/7 - 7/10870 RV3.34446Snyder +2
PPP (D)6/26 - 6/29578 RV4.14040Tie
Mitchell Research6/6 - 6/6961 LV3.24146Snyder +5
Detroit News5/20 - 5/22600 LV4.03545Snyder +10
EPIC-MRA5/17 - 5/20600 LV4.03847Snyder +9
CEA/Hickman Analytics (D)4/24 - 4/30502 LV4.43748Snyder +11
Magellan Strategies (R)4/14 - 4/15875 LV3.34245Snyder +3
Mitchell Research4/9 - 4/91460 LV2.63749Snyder +12
PPP (D)4/3 - 4/6825 RV3.43943Snyder +4
MRG (R)3/24 - 3/28600 LV4.13947Snyder +8
LE&A/Denno Research (D)3/9 - 3/10600 LV4.03942Snyder +3
EPIC-MRA2/5 - 2/11600 LV4.03947Snyder +8
Harper (R)1/7 - 1/81004 LV3.13547Snyder +12
PPP (D)12/5 - 12/81034 RV3.04044Snyder +4
LE&A/Denno Research (D)11/12 - 11/14600 LV4.03145Snyder +14
Inside Michigan Politics10/29 - 10/29794 LV4.03436Snyder +2
EPIC-MRA9/7 - 9/10600 LV4.03644Snyder +8
LE&A/Denno Research (D)7/23 - 7/24600 LV4.03743Snyder +6
PPP (D)5/30 - 6/2697 RV3.74238Schauer +4
EPIC-MRA5/11 - 5/15600 LV4.03939Tie
EPIC-MRA4/13 - 4/16600 RV4.03938Schauer +1
PPP (D)3/2 - 3/4702 RV3.74036Schauer +4
PPP (D)12/13 - 12/16650 RV3.84439Schauer +5