Wisconsin 2012 Recall
News & Election Videos

Maine Governor - LePage vs. Michaud vs. Cutler

Candidates

Eliot Cutler

Eliot Cutler (I)

Bio | Campaign Site

Paul LePage

Paul LePage (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Mike Michaud

Mike Michaud (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoECutler (I)LePage (R)Michaud (D)Spread
Final Results------8.448.243.3LePage +4.9
RCP Average10/7 - 11/2----12.341.239.8LePage +1.4
MPRC (D)10/31 - 11/2906 LV3.394445Michaud +1
Bangor Daily News/Ipsos10/23 - 10/29488 LV5.1134242Tie
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/231177 LV5.073537Michaud +2
Pan Atlantic SMS10/15 - 10/21400 LV4.9134040Tie
Portland Press Herald10/15 - 10/21639 LV3.8164535LePage +10
Rasmussen Reports10/7 - 10/9930 LV3.0164140LePage +1

All Maine Governor - LePage vs. Michaud vs. Cutler Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Maine Governor - LePage vs. Michaud vs. Cutler
12.3Cutler (I)
41.2LePage (R)+1.4
39.8Michaud (D)
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Race Analysis

11/3/14 -- Polling hasn't replicated the outsized margin for LePage in the Portland Press-Herald poll. But this race remains close, and LePage may well yet survive this election.

10/28/14 -- Is LePage up by 10? Down by six? Who knows. Things point overall to a close race.

10/19/14 -- This race seems to be in many ways about Cutler, who has staged a bit of a comeback in the past two weeks, mostly at Michaud's expense. It might be this simple: If Cutler is above 20 percent, LePage wins. If he is below 20 percent, Michaud wins.

10/7/14 -- As Cutler has declined, Michaud has opened up a slight lead. If Cutler suffers the typical drop-off for a third party on Election Day, LePage will probably find himself at the end of his political career.

10/1/14 -- This race remains oddly stable, with Michaud leading LePage by a slight margin. Cutler’s share has been declining, however, and that is a very bad sign for LePage.

----------Race Preview----------

“As goes Maine, so goes the nation.” This was the rule of thumb for political prognosticators for decades. Maine is a quirky state, and for years it held its elections in September. This gave an early view of the mood of the country in the day before reliable public opinion polling. Of course this ended in 1936 when Maine and Vermont were the only two states to vote against FDR, causing his campaign manager to famously comment, “As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.”

But make no mistake, for years the only question was what degree of support Maine would give to the Republican candidate. Until 1954, when Ed Muskie won, the Republicans had only lost five gubernatorial elections – at a time when governor’s elections were held every two years.

Since then, Republicans have won only five. In keeping with the state’s quirky character, Maine has a predilection for independents – only once has a major party candidate won a majority in the state since the 1970s.

Democratic Gov. John Baldacci was vulnerable in 2006, but Republicans nominated Chandler Woodcock, a social conservative who allowed Baldacci to win with 39 percent of the vote. In 2010, it was a different year, and a different story. Republicans nominated Paul LePage, the fiscally and socially conservative mayor of Waterville, Maine, who went on to win the general election by two points. LePage’s style of brusque conservatism hasn’t played particularly well here, but he once again faces a race where his opponents are splitting the opposition vote.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoECutler (I)LePage (R)Michaud (D)Spread
Final Results------8.448.243.3LePage +4.9
RCP Average10/7 - 11/2----12.341.239.8LePage +1.4
MPRC (D)10/31 - 11/2906 LV3.394445Michaud +1
Bangor Daily News/Ipsos10/23 - 10/29488 LV5.1134242Tie
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/231177 LV5.073537Michaud +2
Pan Atlantic SMS10/15 - 10/21400 LV4.9134040Tie
Portland Press Herald10/15 - 10/21639 LV3.8164535LePage +10
Bangor Daily News/Ipsos10/6 - 10/12540 LV4.8163642Michaud +6
Rasmussen Reports10/7 - 10/9930 LV3.0164140LePage +1
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/11531 LV3.0103739Michaud +2
Critical Insights9/24 - 9/30606 LV4.0213936LePage +3
Pan Atlantic SMS9/23 - 9/29400 LV4.9203934LePage +5
Portland Press Herald9/18 - 9/25482 LV4.4143941Michaud +2
Rasmussen Reports9/3 - 9/4750 LV4.0153943Michaud +4
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/21202 LV4.0103837LePage +1
MPRC (D)7/26 - 7/28796 LV3.5134143Michaud +2
Portland Press Herald6/12 - 6/18527 LV4.3153640Michaud +4
Rasmussen Reports4/23 - 4/25830 LV3.0144040Tie
Critical Insights4/16 - 4/23601 RV4.0183637Michaud +1
Pan Atlantic SMS3/31 - 4/5400 LV4.9203937LePage +2
Pan Atlantic SMS11/25 - 11/30400 LV4.9183637Michaud +1
PPP (D)11/8 - 11/11964 RV3.2153638Michaud +2
Critical Insights9/27 - 9/30600 LV4.0243033Michaud +3
MPRC (D)9/8 - 9/10652 LV3.8173440Michaud +6
PPP (D)8/23 - 8/25953 RV3.2183539Michaud +4
Pan Atlantic SMS3/11 - 3/16403 RV4.9263423LePage +8
PPP (D)1/18 - 1/201268 RV2.8263430LePage +4