Wisconsin 2012 Recall
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Maryland Governor - Hogan vs. Brown


Anthony Brown

Anthony Brown (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Larry Hogan

Larry Hogan (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Maryland Snapshot

RCP Ranking: Toss Up
2014 Key Races: MD-6

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | SenateMD-6
2010Governor | Senate | MD-1
2008: President
2006: Senate | Governor
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEBrown (D)Hogan (R)Spread
Final Results------46.951.6Hogan +4.7
WPA Research (R)***10/26 - 10/27504 LV4.43944Hogan +5
Gonzales Research***10/20 - 10/24822 LV3.54644Brown +2
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/231086 LV5.05138Brown +13
Baltimore Sun10/4 - 10/8800 LV3.54942Brown +7
Washington Post*10/2 - 10/5549 LV5.04738Brown +9
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/11096 LV4.05538Brown +17
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/21082 LV4.05137Brown +14
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/241409 RV--5239Brown +13
Rasmussen Reports7/9 - 7/10750 LV4.04835Brown +13
Washington Post6/5 - 6/8962 RV3.55133Brown +18
***The WPA Research poll was conducted for the Hogan campaign, and the Gonzales Research
poll was conducted for the Maryland Republican Party.

Race Analysis

11/3/14 -- This race seems to have closed late, with both parties funneling in money at the last minute. One suspects the undecided voters here should go Democrat, and the GOP was disappointed here in 1994...but not in 2002.

----------Race Preview----------

Maryland is increasingly a city-state -- all of its congressional districts are anchored partially in either metropolitan Washington, D.C., or Baltimore. The state has long been a Democratic stronghold. In the 19th and early 20th centuries, a Democratic machine in Baltimore combined with voters on the culturally southern Eastern Shore to form a Democratic majority. In the later 20th century, the Democrats lost the Eastern Shore but found increasingly receptive voters in the suburbs of D.C. Post-Civil War, the state has elected only six Republican governors, and only one has managed a second term.

The last Republican governor, Bob Ehrlich, won an open seat against Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, a disappointing candidate for Democrats, in 2002. Ehrlich had a tempestuous relationship with the Democratic legislature, and in 2006 he was defeated by Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley. O’Malley handily won a rematch with Ehrlich in 2010.

Anthony Brown, O’Malley’s lieutenant governor, won the Democratic primary, and will face off against Republican Larry Hogan. In a Democratic state like Maryland, Brown has a significant edge, notwithstanding the headwinds Democrats in general are facing this year and Brown’s oversight of the state’s disastrous Obamacare website.