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Massachusetts Governor - Baker vs. Coakley

Candidates

Charlie Baker

Charlie Baker (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Martha Coakley

Martha Coakley (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Massachusetts Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Toss Up
2014 Key Races: Senate | MA-6 | MA-9

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012: President | Senate | MA-6
2010: Gov | Sen | MA-4 | MA-5 | MA-6 | MA-10
2008: President
2006: Senate | Governor
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEBaker (R)Coakley (D)Spread
Final Results------48.546.6Baker +1.9
RCP Average10/20 - 11/1----45.742.0Baker +3.7
PPP (D)*10/30 - 11/1887 LV3.34642Baker +4
Western NE University*10/21 - 10/30430 LV5.04641Baker +5
Suffolk/Boston Herald*10/27 - 10/29500 LV4.44643Baker +3
Boston Globe*10/26 - 10/29600 LV4.04437Baker +7
Emerson College*10/26 - 10/29627 LV3.94842Baker +6
UMass Amherst/WBZ*10/20 - 10/27591 LV4.54447Coakley +3

All Massachusetts Governor - Baker vs. Coakley Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Massachusetts Governor - Baker vs. Coakley
45.7Baker (R)+3.7
42.0Coakley (D)
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Race Analysis

11/3/14 -- Baker has opened a stable lead here, and seems poised for a victory. Will he bring a Republican congressman or two along with him?

10/28/14 -- Coakley has led in only two of the last eight polls. A Baker win is a real possibility.

10/7/14 -- Could this be 2010 redux? Coakley and Baker are neck-and-neck, but neither candidate is anywhere near 50 percent. The smart money probably says that the undecideds break Democratic in a state like Massachusetts. But this isn't always the case, as Coakley knows too well.

10/1/14 -- This race has clearly tightened over the past few weeks, with Baker drawing well within the error margin. Given Massachusetts' history, a Baker upset of Coakley can't be viewed as out of the question. But make no mistake: It would still be an upset.

----------Race Preview----------

For years, Republicans dominated Massachusetts. Some of the most prominent Republicans in history came out of Bay State politics: Charles Sumner, both Lodges, Calvin Coolidge. These were blue-blooded Yankees, with a passion for social reform movements and a belief in cautious taxing and spending. But underneath this Yankee dominance was a growing Irish Democratic presence. By the late 1800s it had turned Boston into a largely Democratic city; by the 1930s it had made the state Democratic in national elections; and by the 1960s it was donkeys all the way down.

As the Irish immigrants and their descendants progressed upwards through society, their political views became increasingly liberal, and by the late 1980s the Democrats had mostly absorbed the state’s Republican establishment. The last true Irish Democrat vs. Yankee Republican race came in 1990, when liberal Republican William Weld won the governorship. The Republican Party is now virtually extinct in the state legislature, but the party has nevertheless won four of the last six governor’s races. The Republican path to victory is simple: Present oneself as a check on the solidly Democratic legislature.

The Democratic wave of 2006 was powerful enough that this argument failed badly, and the state went heavily for Deval Patrick, the state’s first African-American governor. Patrick won re-election by what turned out to be a surprisingly comfortable margin in 2010. This year is an open seat, and Democrats nominated Martha Coakley, who lost a Senate race to Scott Brown in 2010. Unsuccessful 2010 candidate Charlie Baker is back for the Republicans. Coakley has an edge, albeit a small one, but there are a large number of undecideds, and they may well be primed to break for her, given the overall ideological makeup of the state.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEBaker (R)Coakley (D)Spread
Final Results------48.546.6Baker +1.9
RCP Average10/20 - 11/1----45.742.0Baker +3.7
PPP (D)*10/30 - 11/1887 LV3.34642Baker +4
Western NE University*10/21 - 10/30430 LV5.04641Baker +5
Suffolk/Boston Herald*10/27 - 10/29500 LV4.44643Baker +3
Boston Globe*10/26 - 10/29600 LV4.04437Baker +7
Emerson College*10/26 - 10/29627 LV3.94842Baker +6
UMass Amherst/WBZ*10/20 - 10/27591 LV4.54447Coakley +3
WBUR/MassINC*10/22 - 10/25494 LV4.44342Baker +1
UMass Lowell/7News*10/21 - 10/25601 LV4.54541Baker +4
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/232218 LV3.04145Coakley +4
Boston Globe*10/19 - 10/22500 LV4.44536Baker +9
WBUR/MassINC*10/15 - 10/18501 LV4.44342Baker +1
Rasmussen Reports10/13 - 10/14980 LV3.04846Baker +2
Boston Globe*10/12 - 10/14400 LV4.94141Tie
WBUR/MassINC*10/8 - 10/11500 LV4.43942Coakley +3
WGBH/Emerson*10/6 - 10/7500 LV4.34539Baker +6
Boston Globe*10/5 - 10/7400 LV4.93439Coakley +5
WBUR/MassINC*10/1 - 10/4504 LV4.43941Coakley +2
UMass Amherst/WBZ*9/26 - 10/2414 LV5.54448Coakley +4
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/12389 LV2.04147Coakley +6
Boston Globe*9/28 - 9/30401 LV4.93936Baker +3
Suffolk/Boston Herald*9/25 - 9/28500 LV4.44344Coakley +1
Western NE University*9/20 - 9/28416 LV5.04443Baker +1
WBUR/MassINC*9/24 - 9/27503 LV4.44144Coakley +3
Boston Globe*9/21 - 9/23400 LV4.94038Baker +2
UMass Amherst/WBZ*9/19 - 9/23440 LV--4645Baker +1
WBUR/MassINC*9/16 - 9/21502 LV4.43646Coakley +10
Rasmussen Reports9/16 - 9/17750 LV4.04242Tie
Boston Globe*9/14 - 9/16407 LV4.93639Coakley +3
WBUR/MassINC*9/11 - 9/14504 LV4.43544Coakley +9
WBUR/MassINC*9/2 - 9/7500 LV4.43439Coakley +5
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/23361 LV2.03543Coakley +8
UMass Lowell/7News*8/25 - 8/311624 RV2.93241Coakley +9
WBUR/MassINC*8/24 - 8/31700 LV3.73140Coakley +9
Boston Globe*8/17 - 8/26605 LV4.03837Baker +1
Boston Globe*8/10 - 8/19605 LV4.03441Coakley +7
Boston Globe*8/3 - 8/12606 LV4.03240Coakley +8
Boston Globe*7/27 - 8/5605 LV4.03142Coakley +11
Mass Insight/Opinion Dynamics7/28 - 8/3388 RV--4144Coakley +3
Boston Globe*7/20 - 7/29601 LV4.03242Coakley +10
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/241899 RV--3651Coakley +15
Boston Globe*7/13 - 7/22625 LV3.93338Coakley +5
Boston Globe*7/7 - 7/15605 LV4.03639Coakley +3
Boston Globe*6/29 - 7/8604 LV4.03540Coakley +5
Boston Globe*6/22 - 7/1601 LV4.03140Coakley +9
WBUR/MassINC*6/27 - 6/29502 LV4.42841Coakley +13
Boston Globe*6/15 - 6/24604 LV3.93041Coakley +11
Boston Globe*6/8 - 6/17630 LV3.93043Coakley +13
Boston Globe*6/1 - 6/10697 LV3.73142Coakley +11
Suffolk/Boston Herald*6/4 - 6/7800 LV3.52936Coakley +7
Boston Globe*5/29 - 6/3602 LV4.03237Coakley +5
WBUR/MassINC*5/16 - 5/18503 LV4.43039Coakley +9
Western NE University**3/31 - 4/7424 RV5.02554Coakley +29
UMass Poll3/31 - 4/6500 RV5.93445Coakley +11
WBUR/MassINC*3/14 - 3/16500 LV4.42641Coakley +15
Suffolk/Boston Herald*1/29 - 2/3600 LV4.03144Coakley +13
Purple Strategies1/21 - 1/23500 LV4.43646Coakley +10
WBUR/MassINC*1/16 - 1/19504 RV4.42939Coakley +10
Western NE University10/1 - 10/7431 RV5.03454Coakley +20
PPP (D)9/20 - 9/23616 RV4.03851Coakley +13
PPP (D)6/22 - 6/24902 RV3.33447Coakley +13