Wisconsin 2012 Recall
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Kansas Governor - Brownback vs. Davis

Candidates

Sam Brownback

Sam Brownback (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Paul Davis

Paul Davis (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Kansas Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Toss Up
2014 Key Races: Senate | KS-2 | KS-3

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012: President
2010: Governor | Senate | KS-3
2008: President | KS-2
2006: Governor
2004: President | Senate | KS-3 | KS-4

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEBrownback (R)Davis (D)Spread
Final Results------50.046.1Brownback +3.9
RCP Average10/18 - 11/3----42.644.6Davis +2.0
PPP (D)*11/1 - 11/3963 LV3.24546Davis +1
YouGov*10/25 - 10/311137 LV4.83938Brownback +1
FOX News*10/28 - 10/30907 LV3.04248Davis +6
SurveyUSA*10/22 - 10/26623 LV4.04346Davis +3
NBC News/Marist*10/18 - 10/22757 LV3.64445Davis +1

All Kansas Governor - Brownback vs. Davis Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Kansas Governor - Brownback vs. Davis
42.6Brownback (R)
44.6Davis (D)+2.0
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Race Analysis

10/28/14 -- Like the Senate race, the polling here is a little bit all over the place. This is looking like a very close battle.

10/19/14 -- The state's underlying partisan dynamics seem to be asserting themselves here, as Brownback has shot upward in the past few weeks. The state's Senate race might even be helping him by making the race less of a referendum on him and more of a partisan affair.

10/7/14 -- Davis's lead is small, but steady. Brownback is in real trouble.

10/1/14 -- The race has tightened somewhat, and it remains an open question whether Davis can really hold on to a lead against Brownback in a year like this one.

----------Race Preview----------

While Kansas has fairly consistently voted Republican at the federal level since the end of the Great Depression, the state has elected a number of Democratic governors. In fact, Republicans have only held the mansion for 20 of the past 50 years, and no Republican has succeeded another Republican in the state since the 1960s.

In 2002, Kathleen Sebelius was able to take advantage of a longstanding split between moderate and conservative Republicans to edge into the governor’s mansion. She then won a large victory in 2006. Republican Sen. Sam Brownback succeeded her, winning by a large margin in 2010. But Brownback has been a controversial governor, and many of his actions have served to inflame the tensions between conservatives and moderates. He starts out in a very tough position against his Democratic opponent.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEBrownback (R)Davis (D)Spread
Final Results------50.046.1Brownback +3.9
RCP Average10/18 - 11/3----42.644.6Davis +2.0
PPP (D)*11/1 - 11/3963 LV3.24546Davis +1
YouGov*10/25 - 10/311137 LV4.83938Brownback +1
FOX News*10/28 - 10/30907 LV3.04248Davis +6
SurveyUSA*10/22 - 10/26623 LV4.04346Davis +3
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/231973 LV4.04340Brownback +3
NBC News/Marist*10/18 - 10/22757 LV3.64445Davis +1
Rasmussen Reports10/20 - 10/21960 LV3.04552Davis +7
PPP (D)10/9 - 10/121081 LV3.04445Davis +1
Remington Research Group (R)*10/9 - 10/121091 LV3.04845Brownback +3
FOX News*10/4 - 10/7702 LV3.54640Brownback +6
CNN/Opinion Research10/2 - 10/6687 LV3.54949Tie
SurveyUSA*10/2 - 10/5549 LV4.34247Davis +5
NBC News/Marist*9/27 - 10/1636 LV3.94344Davis +1
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/12013 LV3.04542Brownback +3
USA Today/Suffolk*9/27 - 9/30500 LV4.44246Davis +4
Rasmussen Reports9/16 - 9/17750 LV4.04347Davis +4
FOX News*9/14 - 9/16604 LV4.04145Davis +4
PPP (D)9/11 - 9/141328 LV2.73945Davis +6
SurveyUSA*9/4 - 9/7555 LV4.24047Davis +7
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/2839 LV5.04740Brownback +7
SurveyUSA*8/20 - 8/23560 LV4.24048Davis +8
PPP (D)8/14 - 8/17903 LV3.33944Davis +5
Rasmussen Reports8/6 - 8/7750 LV4.04151Davis +10
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/241274 RV--5240Brownback +12
SurveyUSA*7/17 - 7/221208 LV2.94048Davis +8
SurveyUSA*6/19 - 6/231068 LV3.14147Davis +6
Rasmussen Reports4/16 - 4/17750 LV4.04740Brownback +7
PPP (D)2/18 - 2/20693 RV3.74042Davis +2
SurveyUSA*10/23 - 10/24511 RV4.43943Davis +4