Wisconsin 2012 Recall
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Hawaii Governor - Aiona vs. Ige vs. Hannemann

Candidates

Duke Aiona

Duke Aiona (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Mufi Hannemann

Mufi Hannemann (I)

Bio | Campaign Site

David Ige

David Ige (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEAiona (R)Hannemann (I)Ige (D)Spread
Final Results------37.111.749.5Ige +12.4
RCP Average9/9 - 10/23----32.510.545.3Ige +12.8
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/231002 LV6.022554Ige +32
Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG*10/16 - 10/191221 LV2.8341140Ige +6
Honolulu Star-Advertiser10/11 - 10/18605 LV4.0351247Ige +12
Rasmussen Reports9/9 - 9/10750 LV4.0391440Ige +1

All Hawaii Governor - Aiona vs. Ige vs. Hannemann Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Hawaii Governor - Aiona vs. Ige vs. Hannemann
32.5Aiona (R)
10.5Hannemann (I)
45.3Ige (D)+12.8
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Race Analysis

10/28/14 -- Ige seems to have opened up the lead that most observers suspected he would open up. This seems to be getting away from Aiona.

10/19/14 -- Ige seems to have opened up a slight lead over Aiona, as Hannemann has faded down the stretch. The trendlines are especially disturbing for Aiona, as he has remained basically flat while Ige has moved upward over the past few months.

10/1/14 -- This race remains very close. But third parties almost invariably fade down the stretch. The working assumption should probably be that Hannemann will suffer the same fate, which would probably hurt Aiona’s chances.

----------Race Preview-----------

Hawaii is one of our country's most solidly Democratic states. For years, the politics of this one-time nation were governed by a series of Democratic political machines. But in recent years, the strength of the machines has weakened. Congressman Ed Case ran a spirited primary campaign against Sen. Daniel Akaka in 2006, while the Democrats' percentages in gubernatorial elections steadily declined over the course of the 1990s.

The Democratic machine reached its nadir in 2006, when Linda Lingle -- a Republican elected in 2002 -- was re-elected with 63 percent of the vote. But Lingle is term-limited. Her lieutenant governor, Duke Aiona, ran in 2010 to become her successor, but lost to Neil Abercrombie, a former hippie who finally cut his ponytail off in the late 1990s. Abercrombie won the election handily in 2010, but lost his battle for renomination in 2014 to state Sen. David Ige. Aiona is trying again this cycle and is polling well, but will still have an uphill battle in this heavily Democratic state.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEAiona (R)Hannemann (I)Ige (D)Spread
Final Results------37.111.749.5Ige +12.4
RCP Average9/9 - 10/23----32.510.545.3Ige +12.8
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/231002 LV6.022554Ige +32
Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG*10/16 - 10/191221 LV2.8341140Ige +6
Honolulu Star-Advertiser10/11 - 10/18605 LV4.0351247Ige +12
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/11319 LV4.035641Ige +6
Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG*9/11 - 9/141055 LV3.039843Ige +4
Rasmussen Reports9/9 - 9/10750 LV4.0391440Ige +1
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/2655 LV6.035637Ige +2
Honolulu Star-Advertiser7/21 - 7/29612 LV4.0411534Aiona +7
Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG6/7 - 6/91078 RV3.0311731Tie