Wisconsin 2012 Recall
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Georgia Governor - Deal vs. Carter vs. Hunt

Note: If no candidate receives 50 percent of the vote plus one, there will be a runoff on December 2.
Two-Way Race: Deal vs. Carter

Candidates

Jason Carter

Jason Carter (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Nathan Deal

Nathan Deal (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Andrew Hunt (L)

Andrew Hunt (L)

Bio | Campaign Site

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoECarter (D)Deal (R)Hunt (L) Spread
Final Results------44.852.82.4Deal +8.0
RCP Average10/27 - 11/3----43.448.04.0Deal +4.6
PPP (D)11/1 - 11/3975 LV3.143474Deal +4
WSB-TV/Landmark11/2 - 11/21500 LV2.545513Deal +6
SurveyUSA10/30 - 11/2591 LV4.142475Deal +5
InsiderAdvantage10/30 - 11/21463 LV2.644475Deal +3
NBC News/Marist10/27 - 10/30603 LV4.043483Deal +5

All Georgia Governor - Deal vs. Carter vs. Hunt Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Georgia Governor - Deal vs. Carter vs. Hunt
43.4Carter (D)
48.0Deal (R)+4.6
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Race Analysis

11/3/14 -- Deal has what could be a bit of a breakout here, with a poll finally showing him over 50 percent. He may well avoid a runoff, although the smart money still suggests that this will be decided in December.

10/19/14 -- Deal continues to hold a narrow lead over Carter. Neither candidate appears to be close to the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff.

10/7/14 -- Deal has a small lead, but Carter seems range-bound. There’s no doubt a Democrat in Georgia can win 43 to 44 percent of the vote. The question is how that Democrat can get to 50 percent plus one in a runoff.

----------Race Preview----------

From Jan. 12, 1872 through Jan. 12, 2003, Georgia had nothing but Democratic governors. The state didn’t have a Republican base, and Democratic primaries were usually decided on a friends-and-neighbors basis, rather than on the basis of ideological or geographical splits, so the Republican Party had to be built from scratch. And so, the GOP grew in urban Atlanta, spread to suburban Atlanta, and only in 2002 broke through to the rural reaches of the state.

That year, Sonny Perdue ousted Roy Barnes, who had been mentioned as a possible presidential contender. Perdue was term-limited in 2010, and both Republicans and Democrats had high-profile fights for the nomination. On the Republican side, former Secretary of State Karen Handel lost narrowly to Congressman Nathan Deal. On the Democratic side, former Gov. Barnes tried to make a comeback attempt.

Polls showed a close race, but Barnes ultimately proved incapable of expanding his base of support past the 43 percent mark he managed to achieve in the polls. Deal has had some problems as governor, and polls now show a close race against state Sen. Jason Carter, grandson of the former president. But once again, the question is whether Carter can expand beyond the 42 percent of the vote that a Democrat can typically count on in the state as a minimum.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoECarter (D)Deal (R)Hunt (L) Spread
Final Results------44.852.82.4Deal +8.0
RCP Average10/27 - 11/3----43.448.04.0Deal +4.6
PPP (D)11/1 - 11/3975 LV3.143474Deal +4
WSB-TV/Landmark11/2 - 11/21500 LV2.545513Deal +6
SurveyUSA10/30 - 11/2591 LV4.142475Deal +5
InsiderAdvantage10/30 - 11/21463 LV2.644475Deal +3
YouGov10/25 - 10/311743 LV3.241451Deal +4
NBC News/Marist10/27 - 10/30603 LV4.043483Deal +5
WSB-TV/Landmark10/29 - 10/291500 LV2.546484Deal +2
SurveyUSA10/24 - 10/27611 LV4.044463Deal +2
Atlanta Journal-Constitution10/16 - 10/231170 LV3.641465Deal +5
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/231774 LV4.043472Deal +4
InsiderAdvantage10/21 - 10/22704 LV3.744445Tie
CNN/Opinion Research10/19 - 10/22565 LV4.048466Carter +2
WSB-TV/Landmark10/20 - 10/211000 LV2.845485Deal +3
SurveyUSA10/17 - 10/20606 LV4.143454Deal +2
WRBL/Ledger-Enquirer/PMB10/13 - 10/141543 LV2.544446Tie
SurveyUSA10/10 - 10/13563 LV4.246464Tie
WSB-TV/Landmark10/7 - 10/91000 LV3.145455Tie
SurveyUSA10/2 - 10/6566 LV4.244464Deal +2
PPP (D)10/2 - 10/5895 LV3.341464Deal +5
InsiderAdvantage9/29 - 10/1947 LV3.243444Deal +1
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/11851 LV3.043481Deal +5
SurveyUSA9/19 - 9/22550 LV4.345444Carter +1
InsiderAdvantage9/10 - 9/111167 LV2.940447Deal +4
WSB-TV/Landmark9/9 - 9/111109 LV2.947444Carter +3
Atlanta Journal-Constitution9/8 - 9/11884 LV4.042437Deal +1
SurveyUSA9/5 - 9/8558 LV4.244454Deal +1
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/21900 LV3.039474Deal +8
WRBL/Ledger-Enquirer/PMB8/24 - 8/251578 LV2.542447Deal +2
WSB-TV/Landmark8/20 - 8/21600 LV4.044404Carter +4
SurveyUSA8/14 - 8/17560 LV4.239484Deal +9
InsiderAdvantage8/12 - 8/13719 LV3.739437Deal +4
WSB-TV/Landmark7/25 - 7/25750 LV3.847405Carter +7
WSB-TV/Landmark7/15 - 7/15750 LV4.049414Carter +8
InsiderAdvantage6/24 - 6/251349 LV2.740473Deal +7
SurveyUSA6/3 - 6/5999 LV3.238447Deal +6
SurveyUSA5/8 - 5/121380 LV2.737437Deal +6
Saint Leo University5/5 - 5/61000 LV3.035387Deal +3
SurveyUSA4/24 - 4/271567 LV2.537419Deal +4