Wisconsin 2012 Recall
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Florida Governor - Scott vs. Crist

Candidates

Charlie Crist

Charlie Crist (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Rick Scott

Rick Scott (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Florida Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Toss Up
2014 Key Races: FL-2 | FL-18 | FL-26

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | Senate | House
2010Governor | Senate | House
2008: Pres | FL-8 | FL-16 | FL-21 | FL-24 | FL-25
2006: Governor | FL-13 | FL-16 | FL-22
2004: President | Senate

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoECrist (D)Scott (R)Spread
Final Results------47.148.2Scott +1.1
RCP Average10/15 - 11/2----43.042.4Crist +0.6
PPP (D)11/1 - 11/21198 LV2.84746Crist +1
Quinnipiac10/28 - 11/2817 LV3.44442Crist +2
YouGov10/25 - 10/311795 LV2.74141Tie
TB Times/Bay News 9/News 13/UF*10/24 - 10/28850 LV3.13636Tie
Rasmussen Reports10/15 - 10/171114 LV3.04747Tie

All Florida Governor - Scott vs. Crist Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Florida Governor - Scott vs. Crist
43.0Crist (D)+0.6
42.4Scott (R)
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Race Analysis

10/28/14 -- Polling here has been surprisingly light, but what we have is still consistent with a very close race.

10/19/14 -- The race remains close, although after the now-infamous "fan" debate between Crist and Scott, that might not last.

10/7/14 -- Crist has bounced back in recent polling, and now holds a slight edge in the RCP Average. The high number of undecided voters speaks to the opinion of the electorate on the two candidates.

----------Race Preview----------

The 2014 Florida gubernatorial race is possibly the last aftershock of the raucous 2010 Florida elections. When popular Gov. Charlie Crist decided to run for the Senate, it set off a stampede of aspirants for the governor's mansion. Attorney General Bill McCollum was the Republican pick, and he quickly moved out to a lead in the polls over Democratic nominee Alex Sink. But health care executive Rick Scott spent freely in the Republican primary, edging McCollum despite revelations of criminal investigations into Columbia/HCA, the company Scott used to head. Scott then narrowly won the governor’s race over Sink in the fall.

Scott has never been particularly popular, and was initially marked as one of the most vulnerable GOP incumbents in the country. He then drew a top-flight opponent in Crist. Crist had abandoned the Republican Party to run as an Independent when it became clear that he would lose the 2010 Republican Senate primary to Marco Rubio. He subsequently joined the Democrats. But Crist’s initial lead has melted away, and Scott now leads in most polls.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoECrist (D)Scott (R)Spread
Final Results------47.148.2Scott +1.1
RCP Average10/15 - 11/2----43.042.4Crist +0.6
PPP (D)11/1 - 11/21198 LV2.84746Crist +1
Quinnipiac10/28 - 11/2817 LV3.44442Crist +2
YouGov10/25 - 10/311795 LV2.74141Tie
TB Times/Bay News 9/News 13/UF*10/24 - 10/28850 LV3.13636Tie
Quinnipiac10/22 - 10/27817 LV3.44542Crist +3
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/235422 LV2.04546Scott +1
Quinnipiac10/14 - 10/20984 LV3.14444Tie
Rasmussen Reports10/15 - 10/171114 LV3.04747Tie
SurveyUSA*10/10 - 10/13566 LV4.24541Crist +4
CNN/Opinion Research*10/9 - 10/13610 LV4.04444Tie
TB Times/Bay News 9/News 13/UF*10/7 - 10/12781 LV3.24040Tie
UNF9/29 - 10/8471 LV4.74742Crist +5
SurveyUSA*10/2 - 10/6594 LV4.14442Crist +2
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/15689 LV2.04447Scott +3
SurveyUSA*9/26 - 9/29584 LV4.14640Crist +6
SurveyUSA*9/19 - 9/22588 LV4.14243Scott +1
Quinnipiac9/17 - 9/22991 LV3.14446Scott +2
SurveyUSA*9/12 - 9/15571 LV4.23944Scott +5
Rasmussen Reports9/8 - 9/101000 LV3.04240Crist +2
SurveyUSA*9/5 - 9/8576 LV4.24445Scott +1
PPP (D)9/4 - 9/7818 LV3.44441Crist +3
Mason-Dixon*9/2 - 9/4625 LV4.04143Scott +2
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/25962 LV2.04346Scott +3
TB Times/Bay News 9/News 13/UF8/27 - 8/31814 LV3.43844Scott +6
SurveyUSA*8/27 - 8/28580 LV4.24543Crist +2
SurveyUSA*8/15 - 8/18564 LV4.24144Scott +3
SurveyUSA7/31 - 8/4576 LV4.24345Scott +2
Rasmussen Reports7/29 - 7/30900 LV3.04142Scott +1
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/246873 RV--4348Scott +5
SurveyUSA7/17 - 7/21564 LV4.24640Crist +6
Quinnipiac7/17 - 7/211251 RV2.84540Crist +5
SurveyUSA6/30 - 7/2558 LV4.24345Scott +2
SurveyUSA6/20 - 6/23541 LV4.34142Scott +1
SurveyUSA6/5 - 6/10556 LV4.24440Crist +4
PPP (D)6/6 - 6/9672 RV3.84242Tie
SurveyUSA5/20 - 5/22531 LV4.34042Scott +2
SurveyUSA5/9 - 5/12554 LV4.24441Crist +3
SurveyUSA4/25 - 4/28551 LV4.34441Crist +3
Quinnipiac4/23 - 4/281413 RV2.64838Crist +10
Rasmussen Reports4/21 - 4/22750 LV4.04539Crist +6
Mason-Dixon*4/15 - 4/22700 LV3.84242Tie
Magellan Strategies (R)4/14 - 4/15868 LV3.34345Scott +2
SurveyUSA4/10 - 4/14502 LV4.54641Crist +5
Sunshine State News/VSS3/31 - 4/3800 RV3.54445Scott +1
UNF*3/6 - 3/16507 RV4.43433Crist +1
University of Florida1/27 - 2/1LV--4740Crist +7
Quinnipiac1/22 - 1/271565 RV2.54638Crist +8
PPP (D)1/16 - 1/21591 RV4.04341Crist +2
Quinnipiac11/12 - 11/171646 RV2.44740Crist +7
UNF9/30 - 10/8526 RV4.34440Crist +4
PPP (D)9/27 - 9/29579 RV4.15038Crist +12
Quinnipiac6/11 - 6/161176 RV2.94737Crist +10
PPP (D)3/15 - 3/18500 RV4.45240Crist +12
Quinnipiac3/13 - 3/181000 RV3.15034Crist +16
PPP (D)1/11 - 1/13501 RV4.45339Crist +14