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Connecticut Governor - Foley vs. Malloy

Candidates

Tom Foley

Tom Foley (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Dannel Malloy

Dannel Malloy (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Connecticut Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Toss Up
2014 Key Races: CT-5

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | SenateCT-4 | CT-5
2010Gov | Sen | CT-1 | CT-2 | CT-4 | CT-5
2008: President | CT-4
2006: Governor | Senate | CT-2 | CT-4 | CT-5
2004: President | Senate | CT-2 | CT-4

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEFoley (R)Malloy (D)Spread
Final Results------48.250.7Malloy +2.5
RCP Average10/16 - 11/2----43.845.5Malloy +1.7
Quinnipiac10/28 - 11/2926 LV3.24447Malloy +3
PPP (D)10/30 - 11/1931 LV3.24447Malloy +3
Rasmussen Reports10/29 - 10/30977 LV3.04748Malloy +1
CBS News/NYT/YouGov*10/16 - 10/23LV4.04040Tie

All Connecticut Governor - Foley vs. Malloy Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Connecticut Governor - Foley vs. Malloy
43.8Foley (R)
45.5Malloy (D)+1.7
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Race Analysis

11/4/14 -- Independent Joe Visconti, who had been drawing large shares of the vote in polls, withdrew his name from consideration and endorsed Foley. His name remains on the ballot, so it isn't entirely clear how this will affect voting today. But the race is close enough that even small shifts in voting could make a difference.

11/3/14 -- The final polls show some movement toward Malloy. This could still go either way, but it seems like the state's fundamental partisan lean is kicking in.

10/19/14 -- The pollsters really can't seem to agree on where this race stands. It still looks like a tossup overall, although the state's overall tilt suggests that Malloy probably retains an edge.

10/7/14 -- PPP delivered some good news for Malloy. This race is close, but Foley has to make inroads with some pretty Democratic voters to get to 50 percent plus one.

----------Race Preview----------

Governors races tend to be the least partisan contests out there. This explains why, even after the GOP debacle of 2006, Republicans still controlled half of the New England governorships. In fact, the 2010 elections marked the first time Democrats managed to win the Connecticut governorship since 1986, when William O'Neill trounced the Republican by almost 17 points.

Republican Jodi Rell took the helm in July of 2004 after John Rowland resigned amid a fraud scandal. Rell seemingly acquitted herself well in the job, and romped to an easy re-election in the bad Republican year of 2006. She was mentioned as a potential running mate for John McCain, who chose Sarah Palin instead. Rell announced that she would not run for a second full term in 2010, leaving a wide open field.

That race was won by Dannel Malloy over Tom Foley by a margin of less than half a point. Foley ran well in the traditional Republican suburban areas, but Malloy swamped him in the urban areas. Malloy has had a controversial tenure in office, and Foley is back for a second go-round, doing much better in the polls.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEFoley (R)Malloy (D)Spread
Final Results------48.250.7Malloy +2.5
RCP Average10/16 - 11/2----43.845.5Malloy +1.7
Quinnipiac10/28 - 11/2926 LV3.24447Malloy +3
PPP (D)10/30 - 11/1931 LV3.24447Malloy +3
Rasmussen Reports10/29 - 10/30977 LV3.04748Malloy +1
Quinnipiac10/22 - 10/27838 LV3.44645Foley +1
CBS News/NYT/YouGov*10/16 - 10/23LV4.04040Tie
Quinnipiac10/14 - 10/201010 LV3.14545Tie
Rasmussen Reports10/14 - 10/16980 LV3.05043Foley +7
Quinnipiac10/1 - 10/61085 LV3.04646Tie
PPP (D)10/2 - 10/5861 LV3.33945Malloy +6
CBS News/NYT/YouGov*9/20 - 10/11284 LV3.04141Tie
Quinnipiac9/3 - 9/81304 LV2.74943Foley +6
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/21808 LV3.04142Malloy +1
Rasmussen Reports8/18 - 8/19750 LV4.04538Foley +7
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/241177 RV--4841Foley +7
Quinnipiac5/1 - 5/61668 RV2.44343Tie
Quinnipiac2/26 - 3/21878 RV2.34242Tie
Quinnipiac6/12 - 6/171154 RV2.94340Foley +3