Wisconsin 2012 Recall
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Colorado Governor - Beauprez vs. Hickenlooper

Candidates

Bob Beauprez

Bob Beauprez (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

John Hickenlooper

John Hickenlooper (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Colorado Snapshot

RCP Average: 
RCP Ranking: Toss Up
2014 Key Races: Senate | CO-6

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012: President | CO-3 | CO-6 | CO-7
2010Governor | Senate | CO-3 | CO-4 | CO-7
2008: President | Senate | CO-4 
2006: Governor | CO-4 | CO-5 | CO-7
2004: President | Senate

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEBeauprez (R)Hickenlooper (D)Spread
Final Results------46.249.1Hickenlooper +2.9
RCP Average10/18 - 11/2----44.845.3Hickenlooper +0.5
PPP (D)*11/1 - 11/2739 LV3.64646Tie
Quinnipiac*10/28 - 11/2815 LV3.44543Beauprez +2
YouGov10/25 - 10/311417 LV3.34244Hickenlooper +2
Denver Post/SurveyUSA*10/27 - 10/29618 LV4.04646Tie
Rasmussen Reports10/21 - 10/23966 LV3.04947Beauprez +2
NBC News/Marist*10/18 - 10/22755 LV3.64146Hickenlooper +5

All Colorado Governor - Beauprez vs. Hickenlooper Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Colorado Governor - Beauprez vs. Hickenlooper
44.8Beauprez (R)
45.3Hickenlooper (D)+0.5
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Race Analysis

11/3/14 -- This remains tight as can be, with the most recent polling averaging out to a tie. One would probably give Hickenlooper a slight edge here, given the tendency of polls in Colorado to favor Republicans over the past two cycles, but that's really more of a tiebreaking analysis than anything else.

10/19/14 -- This race continues to look like a nail-biter, with Hickenlooper having a bit of an edge.

10/7/14 -- Beauprez's lead is almost entirely built on a single Quinnipiac poll. This race has been surprisingly underpolled, but Hickenlooper probably has a bit of an edge.

----------Race Preview----------

In 2010, the Colorado Republican Party suffered one of the greatest self-immolations in electoral history. It first nominated Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck over Lt. Gov. Jane Norton for U.S. Senate. Then, the establishment nominee for governor, Scott McInnis, collapsed under the weight of a plagiarism scandal. McInnis lost the Republican primary to political newcomer Dan Maes, who came under fire for misrepresenting his law enforcement experience in Kansas during the 1980s and speculating that bike paths were somehow tied in with a U.N. conspiracy. Further complicating matters, former Congressman Tom Tancredo entered the race as the American Constitution Party candidate.

John Hickenlooper won by a surprisingly handy margin, but his tenure in office has been stormy. Two Democratic state senators from heavily Democratic districts were recalled, while a third resigned rather than face a recall election. Hickenlooper’s re-election numbers against former Republican Rep. (and 2006 nominee) Bob Beauprez have been underwhelming. Either candidate could win this one.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEBeauprez (R)Hickenlooper (D)Spread
Final Results------46.249.1Hickenlooper +2.9
RCP Average10/18 - 11/2----44.845.3Hickenlooper +0.5
PPP (D)*11/1 - 11/2739 LV3.64646Tie
Quinnipiac*10/28 - 11/2815 LV3.44543Beauprez +2
YouGov10/25 - 10/311417 LV3.34244Hickenlooper +2
Denver Post/SurveyUSA*10/27 - 10/29618 LV4.04646Tie
Quinnipiac*10/22 - 10/27844 LV3.44540Beauprez +5
Rasmussen Reports10/21 - 10/23966 LV3.04947Beauprez +2
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/231611 LV4.04448Hickenlooper +4
NBC News/Marist*10/18 - 10/22755 LV3.64146Hickenlooper +5
USA Today/Suffolk*10/18 - 10/21500 LV4.44543Beauprez +2
Quinnipiac*10/15 - 10/21974 LV3.14445Hickenlooper +1
Reuters/Ipsos10/13 - 10/201099 LV3.44646Tie
PPP (D)10/16 - 10/19778 LV3.54646Tie
CNN/Opinion Research10/9 - 10/13665 LV4.04849Hickenlooper +1
Quinnipiac*10/8 - 10/13988 LV3.14642Beauprez +4
Denver Post/SurveyUSA*10/9 - 10/12591 LV4.14445Hickenlooper +1
High Point/SurveyUSA10/4 - 10/8800 LV3.54644Beauprez +2
FOX News10/4 - 10/7739 LV3.54242Tie
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/11634 LV3.04549Hickenlooper +4
Rasmussen Reports9/29 - 9/30950 LV3.04650Hickenlooper +4
USA Today/Suffolk*9/13 - 9/16500 LV4.44143Hickenlooper +2
Quinnipiac*9/10 - 9/151211 LV2.85040Beauprez +10
Denver Post/SurveyUSA*9/8 - 9/10664 LV3.94345Hickenlooper +2
Rasmussen Reports9/3 - 9/4800 LV3.54544Beauprez +1
NBC News/Marist*9/2 - 9/4795 LV3.53943Hickenlooper +4
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/21727 LV4.04545Tie
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/242020 RV--4747Tie
PPP (D)7/17 - 7/20653 RV3.84344Hickenlooper +1
Quinnipiac7/10 - 7/141147 RV2.94443Beauprez +1
NBC News/Marist7/7 - 7/10914 RV3.24349Hickenlooper +6
Rasmussen Reports6/25 - 6/26750 LV4.04444Tie
Quinnipiac4/15 - 4/211298 RV2.73948Hickenlooper +9
Magellan Strategies (R)4/14 - 4/15717 LV3.73550Hickenlooper +15
PPP (D)3/13 - 3/16568 RV4.13848Hickenlooper +10