Wisconsin 2012 Recall
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California Governor - Kashkari vs. Brown

Candidates

Jerry Brown

Jerry Brown (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Neel Kashkari

Neel Kashkari (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

California Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Safe Dem
2014 Key Races: CA-3 | CA-7 | CA-9 | CA-10 | CA-16CA-21 | CA-24CA-26 | CA-31 | CA-36 | CA-52

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | Senate | House
2010Governor | Senate | House
2008: President | CA-4
2006: Governor | CA-4 | CA-11
2004: President | Senate

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEBrown (D)Kashkari (R)Spread
Final Results------59.440.6Brown +18.8
RCP Average10/12 - 10/29----54.335.8Brown +18.5
LA Times/USC10/22 - 10/291162 LV3.35637Brown +19
Field10/15 - 10/28941 LV3.45433Brown +21
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/237463 LV2.05537Brown +18
PPIC10/12 - 10/19976 LV4.65236Brown +16

All California Governor - Kashkari vs. Brown Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
California Governor - Kashkari vs. Brown
54.3Brown (D)+18.5
35.8Kashkari (R)
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Race Analysis

California gubernatorial politics are enigmatic. Although Democrats have had a massive registration advantage in the state since the 1930s, they’ve only occupied the governor’s mansion for 28 of the last 84 years. A recent Democratic governorship came to a particularly inglorious end, as Gray Davis was recalled from office less than a year after winning re-election to a second term.

Davis was replaced by Republican actor and education activist Arnold Schwarzenegger. Schwarzenegger has had a tumultuous two terms, shifting to the left after being rebuked by voters on several cherished ballot initiatives. He left office with approval ratings hovering in the 20s and 30s. Combined with the Democratic lean of the state, that made it impossible for even a strong, moderate Republican to win in an otherwise solid Republican year.

Republicans don’t have a top flight candidate this year, and Gov. Jerry Brown is polling reasonably well. It’s hard to see a path to victory for the GOP under these circumstances.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEBrown (D)Kashkari (R)Spread
Final Results------59.440.6Brown +18.8
RCP Average10/12 - 10/29----54.335.8Brown +18.5
LA Times/USC10/22 - 10/291162 LV3.35637Brown +19
Field10/15 - 10/28941 LV3.45433Brown +21
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/237463 LV2.05537Brown +18
PPIC10/12 - 10/19976 LV4.65236Brown +16
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/17943 LV2.05636Brown +20
PPIC9/8 - 9/15916 LV4.95433Brown +21
LA Times/USC9/2 - 9/81089 LV3.35736Brown +21
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/28941 LV2.05335Brown +18
Field8/14 - 8/28467 LV4.85034Brown +16
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/249393 RV--5733Brown +24
PPIC7/8 - 7/15984 LV4.75233Brown +19
Field6/5 - 6/22982 LV3.25232Brown +20
Rasmussen Reports6/4 - 6/5823 LV4.05233Brown +19
LA Times/USC5/21 - 5/28626 LV--5335Brown +18