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Arizona Governor - Ducey vs. DuVal

Candidates

Doug Ducey

Doug Ducey (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Fred DuVal

Fred DuVal (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Arizona Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Leans GOP 
2014 Key Races: 
AZ-1 | AZ-2 | AZ-9

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President | Senate | AZ-1 | AZ-2 | AZ-9
2010Gov | Sen | AZ-1 | AZ-3 | AZ-5 | AZ-7 | AZ-8
2008: President | AZ-1 | AZ-3 
2006: Senate | AZ-1 | AZ-5 | AZ-8 
2004: President | AZ-1

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEDucey (R)DuVal (D)Spread
Final Results------53.541.6Ducey +11.9
RCP Average10/14 - 10/23----48.541.0Ducey +7.5
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/232621 LV4.05040Ducey +10
Rasmussen Reports10/14 - 10/161056 LV3.04742Ducey +5

All Arizona Governor - Ducey vs. DuVal Polling Data

Race Analysis

10/28/14 -- It would be nice if some other pollsters jumped into the fray, but based on the polling we have, it seems that Ducey has opened up a meaningful lead here.

----------Race Preview----------

Arizona flipped from being a solidly Democratic state to being a solidly Republican one rather abruptly in the late 1940s and early 1950s. Since then, Republicans have generally run well in legislative, congressional and U.S. Senate races in the state.

But Democrats have managed to remain competitive in gubernatorial races, holding the mansion from 1955-1958, 1965-1966, 1975-1986, and 2003-2009 (Democrats also held it from 1988 to 1990 after GOP Gov. Evan Mecham was impeached). The race to replace Gov. Jan Brewer looks competitive right now, and with so many undecided voters, it is anyone’s guess who will win.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEDucey (R)DuVal (D)Spread
Final Results------53.541.6Ducey +11.9
RCP Average10/14 - 10/23----48.541.0Ducey +7.5
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/232621 LV4.05040Ducey +10
Rasmussen Reports10/14 - 10/161056 LV3.04742Ducey +5
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/12808 LV3.05039Ducey +11
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/23289 LV3.03938Ducey +1
Rasmussen Reports8/27 - 8/28850 LV3.04040Tie
PPP (D)2/28 - 3/2870 RV3.33536DuVal +1
Behavior Research Center1/16 - 1/26701 A3.82123DuVal +2
Susquehanna11/27 - 12/4600 RV4.03633Ducey +3