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Arkansas Governor - Hutchinson vs. Ross

Candidates

Asa Hutchinson

Asa Hutchinson (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Mike Ross

Mike Ross (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Arkansas Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking: Leans GOP
2014 Key Races: Senate | AR-2 | AR-4

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2012President
2010Governor | Senate | AR-1 | AR-2 | AR-4
2008: President
2006: Governor | AR-1 | AR-2 | AR-3 | AR-4
2004: President | Senate | AR-2

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEHutchinson (R)Ross (D)Spread
Final Results------55.441.5Hutchinson +13.9
RCP Average10/15 - 11/1----49.041.0Hutchinson +8.0
PPP (D)*10/30 - 11/11092 LV3.05141Hutchinson +10
Rasmussen Reports10/27 - 10/29967 LV3.05043Hutchinson +7
The Arkansas Poll10/21 - 10/27568 LV4.15039Hutchinson +11
NBC News/Marist*10/19 - 10/23621 LV3.94744Hutchinson +3
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/231567 LV4.04738Hutchinson +9
Talk Business Poll*10/15 - 10/162075 LV2.24941Hutchinson +8

All Arkansas Governor - Hutchinson vs. Ross Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Arkansas Governor - Hutchinson vs. Ross
49.0Hutchinson (R)+8.0
41.0Ross (D)
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Race Analysis

10/19/14 -- A few polls have shown Hutchinson with a narrow lead, but that's perfectly consistent with the modest lead the polls show overall.

10/1/14 -- Hutchinson has opened up a reasonably steady lead in the polls, and has to be considered a (very) modest favorite at this point.

----------Race Preview----------

The ascent of the Republican Party in most Southern states usually involved some combination of three factors: A vestigial GOP left over from Reconstruction, which provided a base of support; a split in the Democratic Party between conservatives and populists; and a booming metropolis that attracted Northern Republicans southward. States with all three factors present realigned early (Virginia, Texas) while states with fewer factors took longer to fully realign (Georgia, Alabama).

Arkansas is a somewhat unique Southern state. There was a small Republican Party in the Northwest, but there was never a booming metropolis attracting Northerners, and it traditionally didn't have a deep divide between conservatives and populists. The state also produced talented, centrist Democratic politicians who have managed to keep a strong coalition together in the state. As a result, Arkansas had the strongest Democratic Party in the South for most of the post-Civil Rights Act elections.

Mike Beebe governed in the tradition of these centrist Arkansas Democrats and insulated himself from the general decline in the fortunes of Democratic governors across the country. But it remains to be seen whether other Democrats in a similar mold can continue to succeed. Former Congressman Mike Ross would have been a natural fit for the state in the pre-Obama era, but Arkansas might have swung too far rightward even for a relatively conservative Democrat like Ross to win. He will match up against former Republican congressman Asa Hutchinson in the fall.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMoEHutchinson (R)Ross (D)Spread
Final Results------55.441.5Hutchinson +13.9
RCP Average10/15 - 11/1----49.041.0Hutchinson +8.0
PPP (D)*10/30 - 11/11092 LV3.05141Hutchinson +10
Rasmussen Reports10/27 - 10/29967 LV3.05043Hutchinson +7
The Arkansas Poll10/21 - 10/27568 LV4.15039Hutchinson +11
NBC News/Marist*10/19 - 10/23621 LV3.94744Hutchinson +3
CBS News/NYT/YouGov10/16 - 10/231567 LV4.04738Hutchinson +9
Talk Business Poll*10/15 - 10/162075 LV2.24941Hutchinson +8
Rasmussen Reports10/13 - 10/15940 LV3.04947Hutchinson +2
FOX News*10/4 - 10/7707 LV3.54637Hutchinson +9
CBS News/NYT/YouGov9/20 - 10/11991 LV2.04938Hutchinson +11
Rasmussen Reports9/24 - 9/25750 LV4.04642Hutchinson +4
USA Today/Suffolk*9/20 - 9/23500 LV4.44341Hutchinson +2
PPP (D)9/18 - 9/211453 LV2.64640Hutchinson +6
NBC News/Marist*9/2 - 9/4639 LV3.94839Hutchinson +9
CBS News/NYT/YouGov8/18 - 9/21572 LV3.04538Hutchinson +7
Rasmussen Reports8/25 - 8/26750 LV4.04446Ross +2
PPP (D)8/1 - 8/31066 RV3.04640Hutchinson +6
Talk Business Poll*7/22 - 7/251780 LV2.34641Hutchinson +5
CBS News/NYT/YouGov7/5 - 7/241616 RV--4845Hutchinson +3
Rasmussen Reports5/27 - 5/28750 LV4.04841Hutchinson +7
NBC News/Marist4/30 - 5/4876 RV3.34942Hutchinson +7
PPP (D)4/25 - 4/27840 RV3.44638Hutchinson +8
NY Times/Kaiser4/8 - 4/15857 RV4.04140Hutchinson +1
Opinion Research Associates4/1 - 4/8400 RV5.03945Ross +6
Talk Business Poll*4/3 - 4/41068 LV3.04344Ross +1
Impact Management Group (R)2/10 - 2/101202 RV2.84242Tie
Rasmussen Reports2/4 - 2/5500 LV4.54144Ross +3
Impact Management Group (R)10/24 - 10/24911 RV3.24037Hutchinson +3
The Arkansas Poll10/10 - 10/17LV--3531Hutchinson +4
Talk Business Poll10/8 - 10/8603 LV4.04137Hutchinson +4
Harper (R)8/4 - 8/5587 LV4.04638Hutchinson +8
Talk Business Poll2/20 - 2/20675 RV3.84338Hutchinson +5