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Wisconsin Senate - Thompson vs. Baldwin

Candidates

Tammy Baldwin

Tammy Baldwin (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Tommy Thompson

Tommy Thompson (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Wisconsin Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2012 Key Races:
President | WI-7 | WI-8

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2010:
Governor | Senate | WI-3 | WI-7 | WI-8
2008: President | WI-8
2006: Governor | WI-8
2004: President | Senate

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBaldwin (D)Thompson (R)Spread
Final Results----51.445.9Baldwin +5.5
RCP Average10/25 - 11/3--48.646.4Baldwin +2.2
PPP (D)11/2 - 11/31256 LV5148Baldwin +3
WeAskAmerica10/30 - 11/11210 LV4946Baldwin +3
Rasmussen Reports10/29 - 10/29750 LV4848Tie
NBC/WSJ/Marist10/28 - 10/291065 LV4847Baldwin +1
Marquette University10/25 - 10/281243 LV4743Baldwin +4

All Wisconsin Senate - Thompson vs. Baldwin Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Wisconsin Senate - Thompson vs. Baldwin
48.6Baldwin (D)+2.2
46.4Thompson (R)
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Race Analysis

10/30/2012 -- Baldwin's convention bounce has faded along with Obama's, and this is back to pure tossup status. This is one of the few "pick 'em" races out there.

9/24/2012 -- Baldwin received quite a bump in the polls in the wake of the Democratic convention, and it seems to be sticking.  What once looked like a probably GOP pickup is looking more and more like a Democratic hold.

----------Race Preview---------

For most of its history, the political tradition in the Badger State was neither Republican nor Democrat: It was Progressive.  There was no Democratic Party to speak of, so the only question was whether voters would elect a progressive Republican or a progressive Progressive.
 
But as the Democratic Party blossomed in the state during the 1940s and '50s, that progressive impulse became housed in the Democratic Party, and the Republican Party became more conservative.  Today the state is split, much like other upper Midwestern states.  A solid liberal base exists in Milwaukee and in Dane County (Madison), while the Milwaukee suburbs provide a large base for the Republican Party.  The blue-collar areas around Green Bay and St. Croix provide most of the swing vote for the state.

Since the 1990s, the state has settled a point or two to the left of the country's center.  2008 was a banner year for Wisconsin Democrats, as Barack Obama won there by 14 points.  But two years later the pendulum swung back, and Republicans swept the state legislature while winning the governorship and defeating liberal icon Russ Feingold.  Of course, the pendulum seems to have swung back a bit toward the Democrats, who gained control of the state Senate during the recall elections.

So when Herb Kohl announced that he would retire, it set off what has become one of the Republicans' premier pickup opportunities.  They nominated popular former Gov. Tommy Thompson, while Democrats nominated Rep. Tammy Baldwin.  Baldwin is probably too far to the left of what has become a swing state, but Thompson is 24 years older than when he won his first election; his style may contrast unfavorably with Baldwin's energy.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBaldwin (D)Thompson (R)Spread
Final Results----51.445.9Baldwin +5.5
RCP Average10/25 - 11/3--48.646.4Baldwin +2.2
PPP (D)11/2 - 11/31256 LV5148Baldwin +3
WeAskAmerica10/30 - 11/11210 LV4946Baldwin +3
Rasmussen Reports10/29 - 10/29750 LV4848Tie
NBC/WSJ/Marist10/28 - 10/291065 LV4847Baldwin +1
WPR/St. Norbert*10/25 - 10/29402 LV4346Thompson +3
Marquette University10/25 - 10/281243 LV4743Baldwin +4
Rasmussen Reports10/25 - 10/25500 LV4748Thompson +1
Rasmussen Reports10/18 - 10/18500 LV4648Thompson +2
Mason-Dixon10/15 - 10/17625 LV4745Baldwin +2
NBC/WSJ/Marist10/15 - 10/171013 LV4945Baldwin +4
Marquette University10/11 - 10/14870 LV4546Thompson +1
Rasmussen Reports10/9 - 10/9500 LV5147Baldwin +4
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac10/4 - 10/91327 LV4846Baldwin +2
PPP (D)10/4 - 10/6979 LV4946Baldwin +3
Marquette University9/27 - 9/30894 LV4844Baldwin +4
WeAskAmerica9/20 - 9/231238 LV5240Baldwin +12
PPP (D)9/18 - 9/19842 LV4945Baldwin +4
NBC/WSJ/Marist9/16 - 9/18968 LV4846Baldwin +2
Rasmussen Reports9/17 - 9/17500 LV4946Baldwin +3
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac9/11 - 9/171485 LV4747Tie
Marquette University9/13 - 9/16601 LV5041Baldwin +9
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac8/15 - 8/211190 LV4450Thompson +6
PPP (D)8/16 - 8/191308 LV4449Thompson +5
Marquette University8/16 - 8/19576 LV4150Thompson +9
Rasmussen Reports8/15 - 8/15500 LV4354Thompson +11
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac7/31 - 8/61428 LV4747Tie
Marquette University8/2 - 8/51188 LV4348Thompson +5
Rasmussen Reports7/25 - 7/25500 LV4841Baldwin +7
PPP (D)7/5 - 7/81057 RV4545Tie
Marquette University7/5 - 7/8810 LV4145Thompson +4
Marquette University6/13 - 6/16594 LV4149Thompson +8
Rasmussen Reports6/12 - 6/12500 LV3652Thompson +16
Daily Kos/PPP (D)5/11 - 5/13LV4347Thompson +4
Rasmussen Reports5/9 - 5/9500 LV3850Thompson +12
Daily Kos/PPP (D)4/13 - 4/151136 LV4547Thompson +2
Rasmussen Reports3/27 - 3/27500 LV4448Thompson +4
Rasmussen Reports2/27 - 2/27500 LV3650Thompson +14
PPP (D)2/23 - 2/26900 RV4645Baldwin +1
Marquette University2/16 - 2/19716 RV4248Thompson +6
Rasmussen Reports10/26 - 10/26500 LV4249Thompson +7
PPP (D)10/20 - 10/231170 RV4446Thompson +2
PPP (D)8/12 - 8/14830 RV4250Thompson +8
PPP (D)5/19 - 5/221636 RV4445Thompson +1