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Washington Senate - Baumgartner vs. Cantwell

Candidates

Michael Baumgartner

Michael Baumgartner (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Maria Cantwell

Maria Cantwell (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Washington Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2012 Key Races:
President | Governor | WA-1

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2010:
Sen | WA-2 | WA-3 | WA-6 | WA-8 | WA-9
2008: President | Governor | WA-8
2006: Senate | WA-8
2004: President | Gov | Sen | WA-5 | WA-8

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBaumgartner (R)Cantwell (D)Spread
Final Results----39.660.5Cantwell +20.9
RCP Average10/14 - 11/3--36.356.7Cantwell +20.4
PPP (D)11/1 - 11/3932 LV3957Cantwell +18
The Washington Poll10/18 - 10/31632 LV3361Cantwell +28
Rasmussen Reports10/14 - 10/14500 LV3752Cantwell +15

All Washington Senate - Baumgartner vs. Cantwell Polling Data

Race Analysis

As in most Pacific Coast states, Washington's political heritage is Republican. But these Republicans tended to be from the progressive wing of the party, which formed a loud minority at the beginning of the 20th century. FDR brought these voters into the Democratic fold during the 1930s and '40s, and the state's Republican Party saw its dominance in the state decline. Today the Democratic dominance in the greater Seattle area gives the party an advantage in statewide elections, although Republicans are strong east of the Cascade Mountains.

Maria Cantwell is the state's junior senator. She was elected to a single term in the House in 1992 before falling in the 1994 landslide.  She went into business with a political ally after her defeat and emerged a multi-millionaire.  In 2000 she re-entered politics with a challenge to Sen. Slade Gorton and won by a narrow margin.  In 2006, political newcomer Mike McGavick looked as though he might give Cantwell a tough race, but his candidacy imploded after a relatively short time.

Her opponent, state Sen. Michael Baumgartner, hasn't really shown an ability to end the Democrats' 12-year stranglehold on the state's Senate seats.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBaumgartner (R)Cantwell (D)Spread
Final Results----39.660.5Cantwell +20.9
RCP Average10/14 - 11/3--36.356.7Cantwell +20.4
PPP (D)11/1 - 11/3932 LV3957Cantwell +18
The Washington Poll10/18 - 10/31632 LV3361Cantwell +28
The Washington Poll10/1 - 10/16644 LV3558Cantwell +23
Rasmussen Reports10/14 - 10/14500 LV3752Cantwell +15
SurveyUSA9/28 - 9/30540 LV4053Cantwell +13
Rasmussen Reports9/26 - 9/26500 LV3757Cantwell +20
SurveyUSA7/16 - 7/18630 RV4051Cantwell +11
PPP (D)6/14 - 6/171073 RV3551Cantwell +16
PPP (D)2/16 - 2/191264 RV3651Cantwell +15
SurveyUSA1/12 - 1/16617 RV4150Cantwell +9
SurveyUSA11/21 - 11/23549 LV3951Cantwell +12