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Virginia Senate - Allen vs. Kaine

Candidates

George Allen

George Allen (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Tim Kaine

Tim Kaine (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Virginia Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2012 Key Races:
President | VA-2

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2010: VA-2 | VA-5 | VA-9 | VA-11
2009: Governor
2008: President | Senate | VA-11
2006: Senate | VA-2
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleAllen (R)Kaine (D)Spread
Final Results----47.052.9Kaine +5.9
RCP Average10/22 - 11/4--46.848.6Kaine +1.8
Rasmussen Reports11/4 - 11/4750 LV4749Kaine +2
PPP (D)11/3 - 11/4975 LV4652Kaine +6
NBC/WSJ/Marist11/1 - 11/21165 LV4649Kaine +3
WeAskAmerica10/30 - 11/11069 LV5050Tie
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac10/23 - 10/281074 LV4650Kaine +4
Gravis Marketing10/26 - 10/26645 LV4846Allen +2
Roanoke College10/23 - 10/26638 LV4742Allen +5
Washington Post10/22 - 10/261228 LV4451Kaine +7

All Virginia Senate - Allen vs. Kaine Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Virginia Senate - Allen vs. Kaine
46.8Allen (R)
48.6Kaine (D)+1.8
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Race Analysis

10/30/2012 -- Kaine put together a nice string of polling leads in Virginia from mid-September through early October, but that seems to have ended. Whether this is real movement or simply better pollsters coming into the picture is hard to say. We think the race has tightened, but that Kaine probably still leads.

----------Race Preview---------

Unlike many southern states, Virginia has always had a vigorous Republican Party. At first it was based in the mountains and hills east of the Blue Ridge Mountains, where there were few blacks and little historical support for slavery (there was an additional ancient base among blacks that, when combined with western Virginia, made Republicans competitive statewide into the late 1800s; this was wiped out by the poll tax in 1902). They also began carrying Arlington County in the northeast as early as the 1920s, establishing a second toehold in the soon-to-be-growing northern Virginia suburbs. The addition of the third base made Republicans a majority when conservative Byrd Democrats finally exited the Democratic Party and began voting Republican.

But during the 1990s and 2000s, Bill Clinton's socially moderate, fiscally conservative message allowed him to become the first Democrat since LBJ to run even in northern Virginia. As the Democratic Party continued to embrace a relatively fiscally conservative stance, the northern suburbs continued to gravitate toward the Party of Jackson.  This trend was epitomized in 2006, when former Republican Gov. George Allen lost to Jim Webb, a relatively obscure Democratic opponent, largely on the basis of Webb's strong performance in northern Virginia.  While Allen's fateful utterance of the word "macaca" is remembered as the incident that began his decline, in truth he was below 50 percent in the polls before that event, and Webb's fundraising was already picking up.

Webb decided to retire in 2012, and Allen is back to try again to reclaim his seat.  Democrats set up a true clash of the titans by selecting Tim Kaine, a former DNC chairman and governor, as their nominee.  Both candidates have decent favorability scores, and both are very well funded.  So perhaps it isn't that surprising that the pair have been deadlocked for several months.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleAllen (R)Kaine (D)Spread
Final Results----47.052.9Kaine +5.9
RCP Average10/22 - 11/4--46.848.6Kaine +1.8
Rasmussen Reports11/4 - 11/4750 LV4749Kaine +2
PPP (D)11/3 - 11/4975 LV4652Kaine +6
NBC/WSJ/Marist11/1 - 11/21165 LV4649Kaine +3
WeAskAmerica10/30 - 11/11069 LV5050Tie
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac10/23 - 10/281074 LV4650Kaine +4
Gravis Marketing10/26 - 10/26645 LV4846Allen +2
Roanoke College10/23 - 10/26638 LV4742Allen +5
Washington Post10/22 - 10/261228 LV4451Kaine +7
Rasmussen Reports10/24 - 10/24750 LV4849Kaine +1
Rasmussen Reports10/18 - 10/18500 LV4849Kaine +1
Old Dominion University9/19 - 10/17465 LV4350Kaine +7
Rasmussen Reports10/11 - 10/11750 LV4748Kaine +1
WeAskAmerica10/7 - 10/91296 LV4641Allen +5
NBC/WSJ/Marist10/7 - 10/9981 LV4647Kaine +1
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac10/4 - 10/91288 LV4451Kaine +7
PPP (D)10/4 - 10/7725 LV4451Kaine +7
Rasmussen Reports10/4 - 10/4500 LV4552Kaine +7
NBC/WSJ/Marist9/30 - 10/1969 LV4449Kaine +5
Roanoke College9/19 - 9/28589 LV3747Kaine +10
Suffolk/WWBT9/24 - 9/26600 LV4444Tie
FOX News9/16 - 9/181006 LV4347Kaine +4
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac9/11 - 9/171474 LV4451Kaine +7
PPP (D)9/13 - 9/161021 LV4647Kaine +1
Washington Post9/12 - 9/16847 LV4351Kaine +8
Rasmussen Reports9/13 - 9/13500 LV4547Kaine +2
NBC/WSJ/Marist9/9 - 9/11996 LV4646Tie
Gravis Marketing9/8 - 9/92238 LV4843Allen +5
Rasmussen Reports8/23 - 8/23500 LV4545Tie
PPP (D)8/16 - 8/19855 LV4646Tie
Rasmussen Reports8/7 - 8/7500 LV4646Tie
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac7/31 - 8/61412 LV4648Kaine +2
Rasmussen Reports7/16 - 7/17500 LV4546Kaine +1
Quinnipiac7/10 - 7/161673 RV4644Allen +2
PPP (D)7/5 - 7/8647 RV4446Kaine +2
WeAskAmerica6/25 - 6/251106 LV4435Allen +9
Quinnipiac5/30 - 6/41282 RV4344Kaine +1
Rasmussen Reports6/3 - 6/3500 LV4446Kaine +2
NBC News/Marist5/17 - 5/201076 RV4349Kaine +6
Washington Post4/28 - 5/2964 RV4646Tie
PPP (D)4/26 - 4/29680 RV4546Kaine +1
Rasmussen Reports4/23 - 4/23500 LV4645Allen +1
Roanoke College3/26 - 4/5537 RV4639Allen +7
Rasmussen Reports3/20 - 3/20500 LV4644Allen +2
Quinnipiac3/13 - 3/181034 RV4447Kaine +3
NBC News/Marist2/29 - 3/22518 RV3948Kaine +9
Roanoke College2/13 - 2/26607 A4537Allen +8
Rasmussen Reports2/21 - 2/21500 LV4646Tie
CNU/Times-Dispatch2/4 - 2/131018 RV4240Allen +2
Quinnipiac2/1 - 2/61544 RV4445Kaine +1
Mason-Dixon1/16 - 1/18625 LV4646Tie
Quinnipiac12/13 - 12/191135 RV4442Allen +2
PPP (D)12/10 - 12/12600 RV4247Kaine +5
Quinnipiac10/3 - 10/91459 RV4445Kaine +1
CNU/Times-Dispatch10/3 - 10/81027 RV4244Kaine +2
Rasmussen Reports9/28 - 9/28500 LV4546Kaine +1
Roanoke College9/6 - 9/17601 LV4239Allen +3
Quinnipiac9/7 - 9/121368 RV4544Allen +1
PPP (D)7/21 - 7/24500 RV4346Kaine +3
Quinnipiac6/21 - 6/271434 RV4243Kaine +1
PPP (D)5/5 - 5/8547 RV4446Kaine +2
Washington Post4/28 - 5/41040 RV4646Tie
Roanoke College3/17 - 3/30360 RV4532Allen +13
PPP (D)2/24 - 2/27524 RV4747Tie
PPP (D)11/10 - 11/13551 RV4450Kaine +6