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Texas Senate - Cruz vs. Sadler

Candidates

Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Paul Sadler

Paul Sadler (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Texas Snapshot

RCP Ranking:
2012 Key Races:
President | TX-14 | TX-23

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2010
: Gov | TX-15 | TX-17 | TX-23 | TX-25 | TX-27
2008: President | Senate | TX-22
2006: Governor | Senate | TX-22
2004: President | TX-19 | TX-32

Polling Data

PollDateSampleCruz (R)Sadler (D)Spread
Final Results----56.540.6Cruz +15.9
Baselice & Associates (R)*10/10 - 10/14851 LV5133Cruz +18
Texas Lyceum9/10 - 9/26443 LV5024Cruz +26
PPP (D)4/19 - 4/22591 RV4434Cruz +10
PPP (D)1/12 - 1/15700 RV4131Cruz +10

Race Analysis

The rise of the Republican Party in the Lone Star State is a fascinating tale of how one party consistently bit off its nose to spite its face. Texas always had a small Republican Party in the panhandle, in the German counties north of San Antonio, and later in the growing suburbs of Dallas and Houston. But the two-party system mostly played out among Democrats. It was divided between conservative Tory Democrats, who plotted to depose Franklin Roosevelt as the Democratic nominee in 1944 and who supported President Eisenhower in the 1950s, and the liberal Democrats.

When LBJ was elected vice president, a conservative Democrat was appointed to replace him. In the ensuing special election, liberal Democrats either stayed home or cast a protest vote for Republican John Tower, whom they figured they could easily defeat down the road. The same dynamic played out in 1966, and by 1972 Tory Democrats were defecting to the Republican Party, while the Republicans' native base in the suburbs continued to grow.

Today the Republicans have controlled the governorship for 18 straight years, and both Senate seats for 19.  The Democratic Party still maintains strength, and may even regain majority party standing in the future if immigration continues apace.  In the meantime, the race to replace retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison looks to be the Republicans' to lose.  Former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz upset Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst in the primary and is almost certain to defeat former state Rep. Paul Sadler in the general election.