2012 GOP Nomination
Wisconsin 2012 Recall
News & Election Videos

Pennsylvania Senate - Smith vs. Casey

Candidates

Bob Casey

Bob Casey (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Tom Smith

Tom Smith (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Pennsylvania Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
Leans Dem
2012 Key Races:
President | PA-6 | PA-8 | PA-12

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2010: Governor | Senate | PA-3 | PA-4 | PA-6 | PA-7 | PA-8 | PA-10 | PA-11 | PA-12 | PA-13 | PA-15 | PA-17
2008: President | PA-3 | PA-10 | PA-11
2006: Senate | Governor | PA-4 | PA-6 | PA-7 | PA-8 | PA-10
2004: President | Senate | PA-13

Polling Data

PollDateSampleCasey (D)Smith (R)Spread
Final Results----53.744.6Casey +9.1
RCP Average10/23 - 11/3--48.242.8Casey +5.4
PPP (D)11/2 - 11/3790 LV5244Casey +8
Morning Call11/1 - 11/3430 LV4842Casey +6
Tribune-Review/Susquehanna10/29 - 10/31800 LV4645Casey +1
Franklin & Marshall10/23 - 10/28547 LV4839Casey +9
Philadelphia Inquirer10/23 - 10/25600 LV4942Casey +7
Rasmussen Reports10/24 - 10/24500 LV4645Casey +1

All Pennsylvania Senate - Smith vs. Casey Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Pennsylvania Senate - Smith vs. Casey
48.2Casey (D)+5.4
42.8Smith (R)
--
--
--
--
From: to:

Embeddable Widget

 

After making your selection, copy and paste the embed code above. The code changes based on your selection below.

180 x 338   300 x 338   450 x 338   Custom Width

px

Minimum pixel width is 180px.
Embed

Race Analysis

10/30/2012 -- The NRSC is spending money here, and the polls continue to show a tightening contest. Casey can't seem to break 50 percent, but Smith's peak has been the 45 percent a Republican gets just for showing up in Pennsylvania in a normal year. Something has to change to really view this race as a tossup.

10/15/2012 -- This race has tightened significantly since the end of September. Smith still has a high hurdle to surmount, but that isn't out of the question.

----------Race Preview---------

Eighty years ago, Pennsylvania had 36 congressional districts. All of them save for one -- the 12th -- elected Republicans. It was one of a handful of states that voted against FDR in 1932, and it toyed with voting against him again in 1940 and 1944.  By 1980, it had shifted toward the Democrats to become a swing state: The western region was heavily unionized and Democratic, the Philadelphia Republican machine had disappeared, and Republican strength was found in the Philly suburbs (including northeast Philly) and the mountainous interior.

Today, the state is different once again. The Philly suburbs have moved toward the Democrats, while Pittsburgh has moved toward the Republicans. The state Republican Party has changed as well: It is a more conservative entity than was once the case.  The state's Democratic Party is also much more liberal than the one that elected socially conservative, fiscally liberal New Deal Democrats like Bob Casey.

Casey's son, Bob Casey Jr., is one of the last of the old school, New Deal Democrats in Congress.  He is a decent fit for the Keystone State, with a voting record that is geared toward the blue-collar workers who have given Democrats difficulty in places like Scranton and greater Pittsburgh in the past few decades.  This rendered him somewhat vulnerable to a primary challenge, but none materialized this cycle.  Republicans are hopeful that CEO Tom Smith can make a competitive race out of it.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleCasey (D)Smith (R)Spread
Final Results----53.744.6Casey +9.1
RCP Average10/23 - 11/3--48.242.8Casey +5.4
PPP (D)11/2 - 11/3790 LV5244Casey +8
Morning Call11/1 - 11/3430 LV4842Casey +6
Tribune-Review/Susquehanna10/29 - 10/31800 LV4645Casey +1
Franklin & Marshall10/23 - 10/28547 LV4839Casey +9
Philadelphia Inquirer10/23 - 10/25600 LV4942Casey +7
Rasmussen Reports10/24 - 10/24500 LV4645Casey +1
Morning Call10/17 - 10/21444 LV4537Casey +8
PPP (D)10/12 - 10/14500 LV5039Casey +11
Quinnipiac10/12 - 10/141519 LV4845Casey +3
Morning Call10/10 - 10/14438 LV4139Casey +2
Rasmussen Reports10/9 - 10/9500 LV4945Casey +4
Philadelphia Inquirer10/4 - 10/8600 LV4838Casey +10
Susquehanna10/4 - 10/6725 LV4644Casey +2
Siena10/1 - 10/5545 LV4435Casey +9
Morning Call9/22 - 9/26427 LV4436Casey +8
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac9/18 - 9/241180 LV4943Casey +6
Franklin & Marshall9/18 - 9/23392 LV4838Casey +10
Tribune-Review/Susquehanna9/18 - 9/20800 LV4641Casey +5
Rasmussen Reports9/19 - 9/19500 LV4942Casey +7
Morning Call9/10 - 9/16640 LV4533Casey +12
Philadelphia Inquirer8/21 - 8/23601 LV5334Casey +19
Morning Call8/20 - 8/22422 LV4930Casey +19
Franklin & Marshall8/7 - 8/12681 RV4328Casey +15
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac7/24 - 7/301168 LV5537Casey +18
PPP (D)7/21 - 7/23758 RV4636Casey +10
Rasmussen Reports7/18 - 7/18500 LV4938Casey +11
WeAskAmerica7/9 - 7/101227 LV5339Casey +14
Quinnipiac6/19 - 6/251252 RV4932Casey +17
Quinnipiac6/5 - 6/10997 RV5132Casey +19
Franklin & Marshall5/29 - 6/4412 RV4221Casey +21
Rasmussen Reports5/21 - 5/21500 LV4841Casey +7
PPP (D)5/17 - 5/20671 RV4933Casey +16
PPP (D)3/8 - 3/11689 RV4931Casey +18
PPP (D)11/17 - 11/20500 RV4832Casey +16