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Ohio Senate - Mandel vs. Brown

Candidates

Sherrod Brown

Sherrod Brown (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Josh Mandel

Josh Mandel (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Ohio Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
Leans Dem
2012 Key Races:
President | OH-6 | OH-7 | OH-16

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2010: Governor | Senate | OH-1 | OH-6 | OH-10 | OH-12 | OH-13 | OH-15 | OH-16 | OH-18
2008: President | OH-1 | OH-2 | OH-15 | OH-16
2006: Sen | Gov | OH-1 | OH-2 | OH-15 | OH-18
2004: President | Senate

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBrown (D)Mandel (R)Spread
Final Results----50.744.7Brown +6.0
RCP Average10/24 - 11/4--50.045.0Brown +5.0
Rasmussen Reports11/4 - 11/4750 LV5048Brown +2
PPP (D)11/3 - 11/41000 LV5444Brown +10
SurveyUSA*11/1 - 11/4803 LV4441Brown +3
Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin.10/31 - 11/4901 LV5147Brown +4
Columbus Dispatch*10/24 - 11/31501 LV5145Brown +6
NBC/WSJ/Marist10/31 - 11/1971 LV5045Brown +5

All Ohio Senate - Mandel vs. Brown Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Ohio Senate - Mandel vs. Brown
50.0Brown (D)+5.0
45.0Mandel (R)
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Race Analysis

10/30/2012 -- Brown continues to underperform, but Mandel hasn't really gained traction. It's barely a tossup right now, and unless there is a late break toward Republicans, it is hard to see the Mandel pulling this off.

10/15/2012 -- Brown still has the lead, but he is under 50 percent, and Mandel continues to hang around. Brown has the edge, but this race really could go either way.

----------Race Preview---------

The Buckeye State is a microcosm of the country as a whole.  It contains everything: a slice of Appalachia in the southeast, farmland in the northwest, decaying industrial centers and new growth cities. For much of the past few decades, it has been a few points more Republican than the rest of the country, including 2008 when it went for Barack Obama by three points fewer than Obama's national average. The Republicans it has produced have been conservative, but they have generally been of the establishment-oriented sort who have substantial breaks with the conservative orthodoxy, like Mike DeWine and George Voinovich.

DeWine was defeated handily by liberal Democrat Sherrod Brown in 2006 -- a bad Republican year.  Brown has cut a very liberal profile in Washington, yet his approval ratings have held up fairly well in this swing state.  His opponent is state Treasurer Josh Mandel, a 33-year-old boy wonder of Republican politics. 

Mandel has proved remarkably adept at fundraising, and Brown is probably too liberal for his state.  But Mandel is no moderate, and his youthful looks may cause some to question whether he is really up for the job of senator at such an early stage in his career.  Brown is a skilled politician, whose district was spared redistricting in 2000 because Gov. Bob Taft was afraid Brown would run against him.  Even if the national situation deteriorates significantly for the Democrats, he will probably retain an edge.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBrown (D)Mandel (R)Spread
Final Results----50.744.7Brown +6.0
RCP Average10/24 - 11/4--50.045.0Brown +5.0
Rasmussen Reports11/4 - 11/4750 LV5048Brown +2
PPP (D)11/3 - 11/41000 LV5444Brown +10
SurveyUSA*11/1 - 11/4803 LV4441Brown +3
Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin.10/31 - 11/4901 LV5147Brown +4
Columbus Dispatch*10/24 - 11/31501 LV5145Brown +6
Rasmussen Reports11/1 - 11/1750 LV4848Tie
NBC/WSJ/Marist10/31 - 11/1971 LV5045Brown +5
Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin.10/25 - 10/301182 LV4944Brown +5
SurveyUSA10/26 - 10/29603 LV4641Brown +5
Rasmussen Reports10/28 - 10/28750 LV5048Brown +2
PPP (D)10/26 - 10/28718 LV5342Brown +11
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac10/23 - 10/281110 LV5142Brown +9
Gravis Marketing10/27 - 10/27730 LV4847Brown +1
Rasmussen Reports10/23 - 10/23750 LV4844Brown +4
Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News10/18 - 10/231015 LV5147Brown +4
SurveyUSA10/20 - 10/22609 LV4342Brown +1
Suffolk*10/18 - 10/21600 LV4639Brown +7
PPP (D)10/18 - 10/20532 LV4944Brown +5
CBS News/Quinnipiac10/17 - 10/201548 LV5142Brown +9
Rasmussen Reports10/17 - 10/17750 LV4944Brown +5
SurveyUSA*10/12 - 10/15613 LV4338Brown +5
PPP (D)10/12 - 10/13880 LV4942Brown +7
Rasmussen Reports10/10 - 10/10750 LV4746Brown +1
NBC/WSJ/Marist10/7 - 10/9994 LV5241Brown +11
SurveyUSA*10/5 - 10/8808 LV4238Brown +4
Rasmussen Reports10/4 - 10/4500 LV4646Tie
WeAskAmerica10/4 - 10/41200 LV4644Brown +2
NBC/WSJ/Marist9/30 - 10/1931 LV5041Brown +9
PPP (D)9/27 - 9/30897 LV4941Brown +8
Columbus Dispatch*9/19 - 9/291662 LV4939Brown +10
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac9/18 - 9/241162 LV5040Brown +10
Washington Post9/19 - 9/23759 LV5341Brown +12
Gravis Marketing9/21 - 9/22594 LV4443Brown +1
FOX News9/16 - 9/181009 LV4740Brown +7
Ohio Newspapers/Univ of Cin.9/13 - 9/18861 LV5245Brown +7
Rasmussen Reports9/12 - 9/12500 LV4941Brown +8
NBC/WSJ/Marist9/9 - 9/11979 LV4942Brown +7
PPP (D)9/7 - 9/91072 LV4840Brown +8
Gravis Marketing9/7 - 9/81548 LV4842Brown +6
Gravis Marketing9/2 - 9/21381 RV4444Tie
Gravis Marketing8/27 - 8/271397 RV4441Brown +3
Columbus Dispatch*8/15 - 8/251758 LV4444Tie
Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin.8/16 - 8/21847 LV4847Brown +1
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac8/15 - 8/211253 LV4841Brown +7
Rasmussen Reports8/13 - 8/13500 LV4444Tie
PPP (D)8/9 - 8/12961 LV4737Brown +10
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac7/24 - 7/301193 LV5139Brown +12
Rasmussen Reports7/18 - 7/18500 LV4642Brown +4
Quinnipiac6/19 - 6/251237 RV5034Brown +16
PPP (D)6/21 - 6/24673 RV4639Brown +7
Rasmussen Reports5/29 - 5/29500 LV4742Brown +5
NBC News/Marist5/17 - 5/201103 RV5137Brown +14
Quinnipiac5/2 - 5/71069 RV4640Brown +6
PPP (D)5/3 - 5/6875 RV4537Brown +8
Rasmussen Reports4/18 - 4/18500 LV4441Brown +3
Rasmussen Reports3/26 - 3/26500 LV4343Tie
Quinnipiac3/20 - 3/261246 RV4636Brown +10
NBC News/Marist2/29 - 3/23079 RV4737Brown +10
Quinnipiac2/7 - 2/121421 RV4835Brown +13
Rasmussen Reports2/8 - 2/8500 LV4440Brown +4
PPP (D)1/28 - 1/29820 RV4736Brown +11
Quinnipiac1/9 - 1/161610 RV4732Brown +15
PPP (D)11/4 - 11/61022 LV4934Brown +15
Quinnipiac10/17 - 10/231668 RV4934Brown +15
PPP (D)10/13 - 10/16581 RV4840Brown +8
Quinnipiac9/20 - 9/251301 RV4936Brown +13
PPP (D)8/11 - 8/14792 RV4833Brown +15
Quinnipiac7/12 - 7/181659 RV4934Brown +15
PPP (D)5/19 - 5/22565 RV4831Brown +17
Quinnipiac5/10 - 5/161379 RV4531Brown +14
PPP (D)3/10 - 3/13559 RV4832Brown +16