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New York Senate - Long vs. Gillibrand

Candidates

Kirsten Gillibrand

Kirsten Gillibrand (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Wendy Long

Wendy Long (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

New York Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2012 Key Races:
President | NY-1 | NY-11 | NY-18 | NY-19 | NY-21 | NY-24 | NY-25 | NY-27

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2010: Governor | Senate | Senate (Special) | NY-1 | NY-2 | NY-4 | NY-13 | NY-19 | NY-20 | NY-22 | NY-23 | NY-24 | NY-25 | NY-27 | NY-29
2008: Pres | NY-13 | NY-25 | NY-26 | NY-29
2006: Governor | NY-19 | NY-20 | NY-24 | NY-25 | NY-26 | NY-29
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleGillibrand (D)Long (R)Spread
Final Results----72.226.4Gillibrand +45.8
RCP Average10/18 - 10/25--66.323.3Gillibrand +43.0
SurveyUSA10/23 - 10/25554 LV6422Gillibrand +42
Siena10/22 - 10/24750 LV6724Gillibrand +43
Marist10/18 - 10/21565 LV6824Gillibrand +44

All New York Senate - Long vs. Gillibrand Polling Data

Race Analysis

Since the founding of the Republican Party in the 1850s, New York politics was divided between Republican upstate and Democratic New York City.  The growth of the suburbs and the movement of the white working class toward the party of Eisenhower moved the balance toward the Republicans for a while.  But as the suburbs turned back toward the Democrats in the 1990s and 2000s, the state likewise became solidly Democratic.

This shift came as a result of President Clinton's policies, and benefited one Hillary Rodham Clinton.  She won a seat in the Senate in 2000, and followed it up with a resounding victory in 2006.  After Hillary became President Obama's secretary of state in 2009, Gov. David Paterson appointed Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand to the seat.

Although some polls showed a close race, Gillibrand ended up winning a solid 25-point victory over former Rep. Joe DioGuardi to fill out the remainder of Clinton's term.  Although the incumbent's voting record in the House had been moderate, it has been more liberal in the Senate.  Gillibrand is up for an election to a full term this year; her opponent is former congressional aide Wendy Long.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleGillibrand (D)Long (R)Spread
Final Results----72.226.4Gillibrand +45.8
RCP Average10/18 - 10/25--66.323.3Gillibrand +43.0
SurveyUSA10/23 - 10/25554 LV6422Gillibrand +42
Siena10/22 - 10/24750 LV6724Gillibrand +43
Marist10/18 - 10/21565 LV6824Gillibrand +44
Quinnipiac9/4 - 9/91486 LV6427Gillibrand +37
Siena8/14 - 8/19671 LV6522Gillibrand +43
Quinnipiac7/17 - 7/231779 RV5724Gillibrand +33
Siena7/10 - 7/15758 RV6225Gillibrand +37
Siena6/3 - 6/6807 RV6522Gillibrand +43
Quinnipiac5/22 - 5/281504 RV5824Gillibrand +34
Siena5/6 - 5/10766 RV6026Gillibrand +34
Siena4/1 - 4/4808 RV6323Gillibrand +40
Quinnipiac3/28 - 4/21597 RV5825Gillibrand +33