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Nevada Senate - Heller vs. Berkley

Candidates

Shelley Berkley

Shelley Berkley (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Dean Heller

Dean Heller (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Nevada Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2012 Key Races:
President | NV-3 | NV-4

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2010:
Governor | Senate | NV-3
2008: President | NV-3
2006: Governor | NV-2 | NV-3
2004: President | Senate | NV-3

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBerkley (D)Heller (R)Spread
Final Results----44.745.9Heller +1.2
RCP Average10/23 - 11/4--44.048.0Heller +4.0
PPP (D)*11/3 - 11/4750 LV4648Heller +2
LVRJ/SurveyUSA*10/23 - 10/291212 LV4046Heller +6
NBC/WSJ/Marist10/23 - 10/241042 LV4548Heller +3
Rasmussen Reports10/23 - 10/23500 LV4550Heller +5

All Nevada Senate - Heller vs. Berkley Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Nevada Senate - Heller vs. Berkley
44.0Berkley (D)
48.0Heller (R)+4.0
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Race Analysis

10/30/2012 -- Heller continues to cling to a lead, but the specter of 2010 hangs over his head. If polls are under-sampling Hispanic Democrats, as they likely were in 2010, he could be in real trouble.

10/15/2012 -- Polls continue to show a narrow lead for Heller. In fact, the three most recent polls all show him with a three-point edge, although they disagree about the size of the undecided vote. Perhaps Heller’s biggest concern should be that the 2010 polls significantly overstated Republicans' strength in the state.

----------Race Preview---------

Nevada is really little more than a city-state. At statehood, it was a collection of small silver mining towns, with the population clustering around Carson City in the north.  Today, 86 percent of its votes are cast in the Las Vegas and Reno/Sparks metro areas, with 75 percent of the votes coming from Clark County (Las Vegas) alone.  Moreover, these have been some of the fastest growing urban areas in the United States. The state's politics are thus typically in flux, with politicians having to reintroduce themselves to a whole new slate of voters every four years.

This already tempestuous political situation was thrown further into turmoil when the Las Vegas real estate market collapsed. In 2008, this allowed Barack Obama to win a huge victory in a place that typically had close elections. In 2010 it looked as though this dynamic would claim Harry Reid, the Senate majority leader, but the party's misstep in nominating Sharron Angle, and Angle's gaffes and misstatements on the campaign trail allowed Reid to survive for another six years, despite being massively unpopular. 

This year, Democrats believed that they had a great shot at scandal-ridden Sen. John Ensign.  But he resigned and was replaced by 2nd District Congressman Dean Heller.  Heller will face 1st District Rep. Shelley Berkley.  Heller has avoided major mistakes, while Berkeley has been the subject of an ethics investigation.  But the state has been trending Democratic very quickly; the demographics could simply be too much for Heller to overcome.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBerkley (D)Heller (R)Spread
Final Results----44.745.9Heller +1.2
RCP Average10/23 - 11/4--44.048.0Heller +4.0
PPP (D)*11/3 - 11/4750 LV4648Heller +2
LVRJ/SurveyUSA*10/23 - 10/291212 LV4046Heller +6
NBC/WSJ/Marist10/23 - 10/241042 LV4548Heller +3
PPP (D)*10/22 - 10/24636 LV4444Tie
Rasmussen Reports10/23 - 10/23500 LV4550Heller +5
Rasmussen Reports10/15 - 10/15500 LV4350Heller +7
LVRJ/SurveyUSA10/11 - 10/15806 LV4046Heller +6
PPP (D)*10/8 - 10/10594 LV4447Heller +3
Suffolk/KSNV*10/6 - 10/9500 LV3740Heller +3
Rasmussen Reports10/8 - 10/8500 LV4548Heller +3
LVRJ/SurveyUSA10/3 - 10/81222 LV3947Heller +8
Gravis Marketing10/3 - 10/31006 LV3653Heller +17
WeAskAmerica9/25 - 9/271078 LV4545Tie
NBC/WSJ/Marist9/23 - 9/25984 LV4349Heller +6
Retail Assoc. of Nevada/POS (R)9/19 - 9/20500 LV3944Heller +5
PPP (D)9/18 - 9/20501 LV4844Berkley +4
Rasmussen Reports9/18 - 9/18500 LV4142Heller +1
PPP (D)8/23 - 8/26831 LV4547Heller +2
LVRJ/SurveyUSA8/16 - 8/21869 LV3944Heller +5
Rasmussen Reports7/24 - 7/24500 LV4251Heller +9
AFP/Magellan (R)7/16 - 7/17665 LV4245Heller +3
PPP (D)6/7 - 6/10500 RV4344Heller +1
NBC News/Marist5/22 - 5/241040 RV4446Heller +2
Rasmussen Reports4/30 - 4/30500 LV4051Heller +11
PPP (D)3/29 - 4/1553 RV4346Heller +3
Rasmussen Reports3/19 - 3/19500 LV4047Heller +7
Retail Assoc. of Nevada/POS (R)2/21 - 2/23500 LV4447Heller +3
Las Vegas Review-Journal12/12 - 12/20600 RV4443Berkley +1
PPP (D)10/20 - 10/23500 RV4545Tie
PPP (D)7/28 - 7/31601 RV4346Heller +3
Magellan Strategies (R)6/21 - 6/22720 LV4644Berkley +2
PPP (D)4/21 - 4/24491 RV4347Heller +4
PPP (D)1/3 - 1/5932 RV3851Heller +13