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New Mexico Senate - Wilson vs. Heinrich

Candidates

Martin Heinrich

Martin Heinrich (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Heather Wilson

Heather Wilson (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

New Mexico Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2012 Key Races:
President | NM-1

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2010:
Governor | NM-1 | NM-2 | NM-3
2008: President | Senate | NM-1 | NM-2
2006: Governor | NM-1
2004: President | NM-1 | NM-2 | NM-3

Polling Data

PollDateSampleHeinrich (D)Wilson (R)Spread
Final Results----51.045.3Heinrich +5.7
RCP Average9/25 - 10/25--51.340.7Heinrich +10.6
Albuquerque Journal10/23 - 10/25662 LV5042Heinrich +8
Rasmussen Reports10/8 - 10/8500 LV5239Heinrich +13
WeAskAmerica9/25 - 9/271258 LV5241Heinrich +11

All New Mexico Senate - Wilson vs. Heinrich Polling Data

Race Analysis

10/15/2012 -- Wilson is still fighting, but she's increasingly the only person waging this battle. The state is simply moving out of Republicans' reach lately.

----------Race Preview---------

For years, New Mexico was an island of Democratic-leaning voting in the rock-ribbed Republican Mountain West. Republicans haven't controlled the state Senate since the 1920s, nor have they won the state House since the 1950s. The state has a Latino plurality, many of whose families have lived in the Land of Enchantment since it was part of Mexico. Geographically, the counties in the north are heavily Latino, the counties in the southeast are mostly Republican, and the city of Albuquerque and its suburbs are a Democratic-leaning swing area.

During the 1970s, the Mountain West leaned Republican enough that New Mexico looked like promising territory for the GOP.  It elected two Republican senators as well as Republican governors.  One of them, Harrison Schmidt, was expected to have a long career in New Mexico politics.  But in the bad Republican year of 1982, he lost to the state's popular attorney general, Jeff Bingaman.

Bingaman decided to call it a career in 2012, opening up what was expected to be a competitive race.  Former Congresswoman Heather Wilson is the Republican nominee, while the Democrats opted for Rep. Martin Heinrich.  In 2008 Tom Udall crushed Republican Steve Pearce by nearly 20 points, but in a better environment for Republicans, a closer race would be expected.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleHeinrich (D)Wilson (R)Spread
Final Results----51.045.3Heinrich +5.7
RCP Average9/25 - 10/25--51.340.7Heinrich +10.6
Albuquerque Journal10/23 - 10/25662 LV5042Heinrich +8
Albuquerque Journal*10/9 - 10/11658 LV4839Heinrich +9
Rasmussen Reports10/8 - 10/8500 LV5239Heinrich +13
Rasmussen Reports9/27 - 9/27500 LV5239Heinrich +13
WeAskAmerica9/25 - 9/271258 LV5241Heinrich +11
PPP (D)9/7 - 9/91122 LV5041Heinrich +9
Albuquerque Journal9/3 - 9/6667 LV4942Heinrich +7
Rasmussen Reports8/21 - 8/21500 LV4841Heinrich +7
FM3 Research (D)8/5 - 8/7502 LV5041Heinrich +9
PPP (D)7/13 - 7/16724 RV4843Heinrich +5
WeAskAmerica7/9 - 7/101295 LV5142Heinrich +9
FM3 Research (D)6/28 - 7/1503 LV4945Heinrich +4
PPP (D)4/19 - 4/22526 RV4843Heinrich +5
Rasmussen Reports4/3 - 4/3500 LV4642Heinrich +4
Rasmussen Reports2/14 - 2/14500 LV4543Heinrich +2
POS/FM31/2 - 1/7400 RV4544Heinrich +1
PPP (D)12/10 - 12/12500 RV4740Heinrich +7
PPP (D)6/23 - 6/26732 RV4742Heinrich +5
PPP (D)2/4 - 2/6545 RV5039Heinrich +11