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Montana Senate - Rehberg vs. Tester

Candidates

Denny Rehberg

Denny Rehberg (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Jon Tester

Jon Tester (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Montana Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2012 Key Races:
President | Governor | MT-AL

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2010
: MT-AL
2008: President | Governor | Senate | MT-AL
2006: Senate | MT-AL
2004: President | Governor | MT-AL

Polling Data

PollDateSampleRehberg (R)Tester (D)Spread
Final Results----44.948.6Tester +3.7
RCP Average10/29 - 11/3--47.747.3Rehberg +0.4
PPP (D)*11/2 - 11/3836 LV4648Tester +2
Mason-Dixon10/29 - 10/31625 LV4945Rehberg +4
Rasmussen Reports10/29 - 10/29500 LV4849Tester +1

All Montana Senate - Rehberg vs. Tester Polling Data

Race Analysis

While Big Sky Country has been Republican at the presidential level for quite some time, at the state and local levels it has a strong Democratic streak extending back to the Progressive era.  The western mountains are heavily unionized (Montana is one of the Mountain West states without a right-to-work law), and Democrats with a populist streak, like Gov. Brian Schweitzer, are popular in the state.

In 2006, Jon Tester defeated Sen. Conrad Burns.  Burns is the only Republican who had ever been elected to successive terms in Montana history, despite his penchant for cringe-inducing gaffes (such as telling a group of firefighters, returning home from the field, that they had done a "piss-poor job").  Tester was a rancher and state senator who became a darling of the left-leaning Netroots in 2006, and ran a populist campaign against Burns.  Despite the pro-Democratic tone of that cycle, Tester won only narrowly.

In the Senate, Tester has had a voting record toward the right edge of the Democratic caucus.  That might not be enough in 2012, however.  He's facing Republican Rep. Dennis Rehberg, who already represents the entire state in Congress.  Most polling has shown a tight race, perhaps with a slight edge for Rehberg.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleRehberg (R)Tester (D)Spread
Final Results----44.948.6Tester +3.7
RCP Average10/29 - 11/3--47.747.3Rehberg +0.4
PPP (D)*11/2 - 11/3836 LV4648Tester +2
Mason-Dixon10/29 - 10/31625 LV4945Rehberg +4
Rasmussen Reports10/29 - 10/29500 LV4849Tester +1
Rasmussen Reports10/14 - 10/14500 LV4848Tie
PPP (D)*10/8 - 10/10737 LV4345Tester +2
Montana State U.*9/27 - 9/30477 LV4340Rehberg +3
Mason-Dixon9/17 - 9/19625 LV4845Rehberg +3
PPP (D)*9/10 - 9/11656 LV4345Tester +2
Rasmussen Reports8/20 - 8/20500 LV4743Rehberg +4
Rasmussen Reports6/18 - 6/18500 LV4947Rehberg +2
Rasmussen Reports5/2 - 5/2450 LV5343Rehberg +10
PPP (D)4/26 - 4/29934 RV4348Tester +5
Rasmussen Reports4/2 - 4/2500 LV4744Rehberg +3
Rasmussen Reports2/22 - 2/22500 LV4744Rehberg +3
POS/FM31/2 - 1/7400 RV4643Rehberg +3
PPP (D)11/28 - 11/301625 RV4745Rehberg +2
PPP (D)6/16 - 6/19819 RV4745Rehberg +2
Billings Gazette3/14 - 3/16625 LV4546Tester +1
PPP (D)11/10 - 11/131176 RV4846Rehberg +2