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Michigan Senate - Hoekstra vs. Stabenow

Candidates

Pete Hoekstra

Pete Hoekstra (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Debbie Stabenow

Debbie Stabenow (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Michigan Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2012 Key Races:
President | MI-1 | MI-3 | MI-11

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2010
: Governor | MI-1 | MI-7 | MI-9 | MI-15
2008: President | MI-7 | MI-9
2006: Senate | Governor
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleHoekstra (R)Stabenow (D)Spread
Final Results----38.058.8Stabenow +20.8
RCP Average10/11 - 11/4--39.552.8Stabenow +13.3
Mitchell Research11/4 - 11/41305 LV4155Stabenow +14
PPP (D)11/1 - 11/3700 LV4255Stabenow +13
Baydoun/Foster (D)11/2 - 11/21913 LV4450Stabenow +6
Detroit News10/27 - 10/29600 LV3852Stabenow +14
EPIC-MRA10/26 - 10/29600 LV3354Stabenow +21
Rasmussen Reports10/11 - 10/11500 LV3951Stabenow +12

All Michigan Senate - Hoekstra vs. Stabenow Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Michigan Senate - Hoekstra vs. Stabenow
39.5Hoekstra (R)
52.8Stabenow (D)+13.3
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Race Analysis

10/15/2012 -- For a while it looked as if Hoekstra was in this race, but Stabenow has taken command since the Democratic convention. It would take a massive shift in the dynamics of this contest for Hoekstra to win at this point.

----------Race Preview---------

For much of its history, Michigan was one of the most Republican states in the union.  In 1920, it gave Democrat John Cox 22 percent of the vote; in 1924 it gave John W. Davis 13 percent; and in 1928 it gave Al Smith 29 percent of the vote.  But in the wake of the sit-down strikes of the 1930s and the high levels of unionization that followed, Michigan quickly became competitive. The state became split between "outstate" Michigan, which retained its Republican heritage, and Detroit, which was solidly Democratic. When the Detroit suburbs, like most northern suburbs, swung toward the Democrats in the 1990s, they took the state with them.  Michigan has been reliably Democratic at the presidential level since the 1992 elections.

But in 2010, Michigan swung toward the Republicans.  Political novice Rick Snyder defeated Democrat Virg Bernero for governor by a stunning 19-point margin, while Republicans racked up impressive majorities in the state legislature.

Against this background, one would suspect that officeholders would be lining up for the opportunity to take on incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow.  Stabenow has never been the most popular senator in the state; she narrowly defeated Republican Spencer Abraham in the generally good Democratic year of 2000, and won by 15 points against an underwhelming Republican in the solid Democratic year of 2006.  Her approval ratings are mired in the 40s.  But Stabenow's competitor, Pete Hoekstra, inflicted a fairly serious wound upon himself with a widely panned Super Bowl commercial, and he has trailed consistently in the polls.  Michigan looks to be closer this year than in a typical presidential year.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleHoekstra (R)Stabenow (D)Spread
Final Results----38.058.8Stabenow +20.8
RCP Average10/11 - 11/4--39.552.8Stabenow +13.3
Mitchell Research11/4 - 11/41305 LV4155Stabenow +14
PPP (D)11/1 - 11/3700 LV4255Stabenow +13
Baydoun/Foster (D)11/2 - 11/21913 LV4450Stabenow +6
Detroit News10/27 - 10/29600 LV3852Stabenow +14
EPIC-MRA10/26 - 10/29600 LV3354Stabenow +21
Rasmussen Reports10/11 - 10/11500 LV3951Stabenow +12
Detroit News10/6 - 10/8600 LV3850Stabenow +12
EPIC-MRA10/4 - 10/6600 LV3555Stabenow +20
Baydoun/Foster (D)10/5 - 10/51122 LV4351Stabenow +8
Gravis Marketing9/21 - 9/22804 LV4054Stabenow +14
Rasmussen Reports9/20 - 9/20500 LV3753Stabenow +16
Detroit News9/15 - 9/17600 LV3450Stabenow +16
MRG9/10 - 9/15600 LV4046Stabenow +6
Baydoun/Foster (D)9/12 - 9/121156 LV4247Stabenow +5
EPIC-MRA9/8 - 9/11600 LV3849Stabenow +11
PPP (D)8/31 - 9/2815 LV4150Stabenow +9
EPIC-MRA8/28 - 8/281200 LV4451Stabenow +7
Mitchell Research8/23 - 8/231277 LV4544Hoekstra +1
Detroit News8/18 - 8/20600 LV4048Stabenow +8
Baydoun/Foster (D)8/16 - 8/161733 LV4846Hoekstra +2
EPIC-MRA7/24 - 7/31600 LV3549Stabenow +14
Baydoun/Foster (D)7/28 - 7/281046 LV4353Stabenow +10
Rasmussen Reports7/23 - 7/23500 LV4046Stabenow +6
PPP (D)7/21 - 7/23579 RV3852Stabenow +14
NBC News/Marist6/24 - 6/251078 RV3749Stabenow +12
Rasmussen Reports6/14 - 6/14500 LV3948Stabenow +9
EPIC-MRA6/2 - 6/5600 LV3849Stabenow +11
PPP (D)5/24 - 5/27500 RV3753Stabenow +16
MRG3/14 - 3/19600 LV4045Stabenow +5
NBC News/Marist2/19 - 2/203149 RV3253Stabenow +21
PPP (D)2/10 - 2/12560 RV3751Stabenow +14
EPIC-MRA11/13 - 11/16600 LV4248Stabenow +6
EPIC-MRA8/13 - 8/16600 LV3847Stabenow +9
PPP (D)7/21 - 7/24593 RV4150Stabenow +9
PPP (D)3/18 - 3/20502 RV3850Stabenow +12
EPIC-MRA2/12 - 2/17600 LV4244Stabenow +2
Wilson Research (R)1/9 - 1/11601 LV4147Stabenow +6
PPP (D)12/3 - 12/61224 RV4445Stabenow +1