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Massachusetts Senate - Brown vs. Warren

Candidates

Scott Brown

Scott Brown (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Elizabeth Warren

Elizabeth Warren (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Massachusetts Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
Toss Up
2012 Key Races:
President | MA-6

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2010:
Gov | Sen | MA-4 | MA-5 | MA-6 | MA-10
2008: President
2006: Senate | Governor
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBrown (R)Warren (D)Spread
Final Results----46.253.7Warren +7.5
RCP Average10/26 - 11/3--47.050.0Warren +3.0
UMass Lowell/Boston Herald10/31 - 11/3800 LV4948Brown +1
PPP (D)11/1 - 11/21089 LV4652Warren +6
Western NE University10/26 - 11/1535 LV4650Warren +4

All Massachusetts Senate - Brown vs. Warren Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Massachusetts Senate - Brown vs. Warren
47.0Brown (R)
50.0Warren (D)+3.0
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Race Analysis

10/30/2012 -- Scott Brown hasn't crossed 48 percent in a poll since mid-September, and three of the four latest polls show Elizabeth Warren over 50 percent. There aren't likely enough crossover "Obama/Brown" voters to re-elect the incumbent.

----------Race Preview---------

For years, Massachusetts was one of the most solidly Republican states in the nation. From the founding of the Republican Party through 1928, the state voted for only a single Democrat, in 1912, when the Progressive wing of the Republican Party split off to form a short-lived third party.  But as time passed and more and more Irish and other minorities moved to Boston, the Democrats' strength grew.  By the late 1800s Boston was a mostly Democratic city, by the 1930s the state was Democratic in national elections, and by the 1960s it was donkeys all the way down.

Today the Republican Party is now virtually extinct in the state legislature, and the state hasn't sent a Republican to the House of Representatives since 1996.  But in January 2010 the political world was shocked when an obscure state senator defeated Attorney General Martha Coakley in a special election to claim Ted Kennedy's seat by a five-point margin.  Coakley won the solidly liberal western portion of the state and Boston, but it wasn't enough to offset Scott Brown's margins in the suburbs.

Brown has cut a moderate profile in Congress, similar to that of Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine.  His approval ratings have remained relatively high.  But he faces a game challenge from law professor and consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren, who has enthralled the Democratic base and whose fundraising has been astronomical.  Brown has done most everything right for a Republican in the Bay State, but in a presidential year even that might not be enough.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBrown (R)Warren (D)Spread
Final Results----46.253.7Warren +7.5
RCP Average10/26 - 11/3--47.050.0Warren +3.0
UMass Lowell/Boston Herald10/31 - 11/3800 LV4948Brown +1
PPP (D)11/1 - 11/21089 LV4652Warren +6
Western NE University10/26 - 11/1535 LV4650Warren +4
Suffolk/7News10/25 - 10/28600 LV4653Warren +7
Boston Globe10/24 - 10/28583 LV4747Tie
Rasmussen Reports10/25 - 10/25500 LV4752Warren +5
WBUR/MassINC10/21 - 10/22516 LV4450Warren +6
PPP (D)10/9 - 10/111051 LV4450Warren +6
Rasmussen Reports10/10 - 10/10500 LV4749Warren +2
WBUR/MassINC10/5 - 10/7501 LV4845Brown +3
Western NE University9/28 - 10/4440 LV4550Warren +5
WBUR/MassINC9/26 - 9/28504 LV4549Warren +4
Boston Globe9/21 - 9/27502 LV3843Warren +5
Rasmussen Reports9/24 - 9/24500 LV4848Tie
WBUR/MassINC9/15 - 9/17507 LV4247Warren +5
UMass Lowell/Boston Herald9/13 - 9/17497 LV4945Brown +4
PPP (D)9/13 - 9/16876 LV4648Warren +2
Suffolk/7News9/13 - 9/16600 LV4448Warren +4
Western NE University9/6 - 9/13444 LV4450Warren +6
PPP (D)8/16 - 8/191115 LV4944Brown +5
MassINC7/19 - 7/22445 RV3840Warren +2
PPP (D)6/22 - 6/24902 RV4646Tie
Western NE University5/29 - 5/31504 RV4345Warren +2
Boston Globe5/25 - 5/31651 LV3937Brown +2
Suffolk/7News5/20 - 5/22600 LV4847Brown +1
Rasmussen Reports5/7 - 5/7500 LV4545Tie
MassINC4/25 - 4/28438 RV4143Warren +2
Rasmussen Reports4/9 - 4/9500 LV4546Warren +1
Boston Globe3/21 - 3/27544 LV3735Brown +2
PPP (D)3/16 - 3/18936 RV4146Warren +5
Western NE University2/23 - 3/1527 RV4941Brown +8
Rasmussen Reports2/29 - 2/29500 LV4944Brown +5
Suffolk/7News2/11 - 2/15600 LV4940Brown +9
WBUR/MassINC2/6 - 2/9503 LV4346Warren +3
Mass Insight/Opinion Dynamics1/31 - 2/4456 RV5242Brown +10
UMass Lowell/Boston Herald12/1 - 12/6505 RV4249Warren +7
Western NE University9/29 - 10/5475 RV4742Brown +5
UMass Lowell/Boston Herald9/22 - 9/281005 RV4138Brown +3
PPP (D)9/16 - 9/18791 RV4446Warren +2
WBUR/MassINC8/30 - 9/1500 LV4435Brown +9
PPP (D)6/2 - 6/5957 RV4732Brown +15
Western NE University3/6 - 3/10472 RV5134Brown +17