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Hawaii Senate - Lingle vs. Hirono


Mazie Hirono

Mazie Hirono (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Linda Lingle

Linda Lingle (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Hawaii Snapshot

RCP Ranking:
2012 Key Races:

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

: Governor | Senate | HI-1
2008: President
2006: Governor | Senate | HI-1 | HI-2
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleHirono (D)Lingle (R)Spread
Final Results----62.637.4Hirono +25.2
Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG10/24 - 10/261218 LV5540Hirono +15
Honolulu Star-Advertiser10/15 - 10/22786 LV5735Hirono +22
Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG9/26 - 9/281684 LV5539Hirono +16
Honolulu Star-Advertiser7/12 - 7/21756 LV5839Hirono +19
Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG*6/5 - 6/71105 LV4944Hirono +5
Honolulu Star-Advertiser1/26 - 2/5771 RV5737Hirono +20
Honolulu Civil Beat/MRG1/18 - 1/191358 LV4639Hirono +7
PPP (D)10/13 - 10/16568 RV4842Hirono +6
Honolulu Star-Advertiser5/4 - 5/10614 RV5735Hirono +22
Daily Kos/PPP (D)3/24 - 3/27898 RV5240Hirono +12

Race Analysis

10/15/2012 -- It looks as if the Democratic lean of the state is taking over. The Honolulu Star-Advertiser poll had been the friendliest survey to former Gov. Linda Lingle, but now it shows her Democratic opponent with a double-digit lead. This is quickly losing even long-shot status for Republicans.

----------Race Preview---------

While many people are aware of the eight major islands of Hawaii, few are aware that the state actually consists of 19 islands, stretching in a chain across 1,500 miles. A 20th, being formed to the southeast of the Big Island, will likely break water in the next 10,000 years.

When the Hawaiian Islands were admitted to the union, Southern Democrats demanded that Alaska be admitted as a more solidly Democratic counterweight to what was expected to be a pro-civil rights Republican stronghold.  These plans went awry, as such plans frequently do.  Alaska is now one of our most Republican states, while Hawaii is one of our most Democratic. 

The retirement of Sen. Daniel Akaka provides Republicans with a bit of an opportunity for a pickup.  Democrats have nominated Rep. Mazie Hirono.  On the Republican side, former Gov. Linda Lingle is in the race.  Lingle probably faces an uphill battle in a year when favorite son Barack Obama will be atop the ticket, but some recent polling has shown her to be in a competitive position.