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Arizona Senate - Flake vs. Carmona

Candidates

Richard Carmona

Richard Carmona (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Jeff Flake

Jeff Flake (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Arizona Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
Leans GOP
2012 Key Races:
President | AZ-1 | AZ-2 | AZ-9

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2010
: Gov | Sen | AZ-1 | AZ-3 | AZ-5 | AZ-7 | AZ-8
2008: President | AZ-1 | AZ-3
2006: Senate | AZ-1 | AZ-5 | AZ-8
2004: President | AZ-1

Polling Data

PollDateSampleCarmona (D)Flake (R)Spread
Final Results----46.249.2Flake +3.0
RCP Average10/21 - 11/3--45.050.5Flake +5.5
PPP (D)11/2 - 11/31080 LV4651Flake +5
Rasmussen Reports10/21 - 10/21500 LV4450Flake +6

All Arizona Senate - Flake vs. Carmona Polling Data

Race Analysis

10/30/2012 -- One of the interesting things about recent polls is that they agree Carmona is at about 45 percent support, which is consistent with the natural Democratic tilt of the state.

10/15/2012 -- This race has narrowed considerably in the past few weeks, with Carmona leading in two of the most recent polls. With that said, Flake still leads in the overall average, and the Republican tilt of the state will probably work to Flake's advantage down the stretch.

----------Race Preview---------

When Willis Haviland Carrier was granted Patent No. 808897 for his "Apparatus for Treating Air," Arizona was an overwhelmingly rural stretch of desert in the American Southwest.  Its few residents traced their roots to the Confederacy (north/south migration in the United States would not begin in earnest until the 1920s), and it was therefore overwhelmingly Democratic. But as air conditioning made desert life palatable, increasing numbers of migrants from the Midwest to Southern California decided to drop their bags in Phoenix.  And, gradually, the political demography of Arizona began to change.

Arizona experienced a political earthquake in 1952, when John Rhodes defeated 16-year incumbent Democrat John Murdock by eight points in the Maricopa County-based 1st Congressional District, while Phoenix department store owner Barry Goldwater defeated Senate Majority Leader Ernest McFarland by two points statewide.  By the time Goldwater resigned that Senate seat in 1964 to claim his party's presidential nod, the Republicans were the majority party in the state.

Arizona has since inched back toward the Democratic Party, as suburban areas nationally have trended Democratic and as Latinos increase their vote share in the state.  But it still leans Republican overall, as the GOP has maintained majorities in the state Senate since 1992 and the state House since 1962.  With the retirement of Arizona's junior senator, Jon Kyl, Democrats today find themselves with a thin bench.  They've turned to former Surgeon General Richard Carmona to take on Republican Congressman Jeff Flake.  Flake's solidly conservative voting record might be a bit to the right of the electorate these days, which could possibly give him trouble, though this is still a red state.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleCarmona (D)Flake (R)Spread
Final Results----46.249.2Flake +3.0
RCP Average10/21 - 11/3--45.050.5Flake +5.5
PPP (D)11/2 - 11/31080 LV4651Flake +5
Rasmussen Reports10/21 - 10/21500 LV4450Flake +6
Behavior Research Center10/4 - 10/10LV4440Carmona +4
PPP (D)10/1 - 10/3595 LV4543Carmona +2
HighGround/Moore (R)*9/25 - 9/26500 LV4043Flake +3
Rasmussen Reports9/25 - 9/25500 LV4147Flake +6
PPP (D)9/7 - 9/9993 LV4344Flake +1
PPP (D)7/23 - 7/25833 RV3838Tie
Rasmussen Reports6/26 - 6/26500 LV3147Flake +16
Project New America/PPP (D)6/4 - 6/5791 LV4143Flake +2
PPP (D)5/17 - 5/20500 RV3548Flake +13
Magellan (R)4/30 - 5/2909 LV4044Flake +4
Rasmussen Reports3/13 - 3/13500 LV3447Flake +13
NBC News/Marist2/19 - 2/202487 RV2942Flake +13
PPP (D)2/17 - 2/19743 RV3546Flake +11
PPP (D)11/17 - 11/20500 RV3640Flake +4