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Oklahoma 2nd District - Mullin vs. Wallace


Markwayne Mullin

Markwayne Mullin (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Rob Wallace

Rob Wallace (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Oklahoma Snapshot

RCP Ranking: Likely GOP
2012 Key Races: President

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

Governor | Senate | OK-2
2008: President | Senate
2006: Governor
2004: President | Senate | OK-1

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMullin (R)Wallace (D)Spread
Final Results----57.338.3Mullin +19.0
Sooner Poll10/25 - 10/31300 LV4533Mullin +12

Race Analysis

Eastern Oklahoma is "Little Dixie," an area settled by people from Mississippi and which still retains a Southern accent and culture.  It also retains Southern voting patterns, and preferred sending conservative Democrats to Congress long after it began voting for Republicans at the presidential level.

But as is the case with the rest of the South, the era of the conservative Democrat is likely reaching its end in Oklahoma as well.

For decades, this district sent either conservative or populist Democrats to Congress.  That streak ended in 1994 when it elected a conservative, populist Republican to Congress, Tom Coburn.  Coburn retired in 2000, in keeping with a self-imposed term-limit pledge.  The 2nd then elected a pair of conservative Democrats, including Dan Boren, son of perhaps the most beloved conservative Democrat in the state, former Sen. David Boren.

Boren was held to under 57 percent of the vote by a middling candidate in 2010, and opted to call it a career.  Republicans have selected plumber Markwayne Mullin as their candidate, while Democrats have rallied around former District Attorney Rob Wallace.  Three decades ago Wallace would have been a perfect fit for the district, but these days there just aren't enough crossover votes to elect him.  Mullin will likely be the next congressman from this district.