----------PAST KEY RACES----------
2010: Governor | Senate | Senate (Special) | NY-1 | NY-2 | NY-4 | NY-13 | NY-19 | NY-20 | NY-22 | NY-23 | NY-24 | NY-25 | NY-27 | NY-29
2008: Pres | NY-13 | NY-25 | NY-26 | NY-29
2006: Governor | NY-19 | NY-20 | NY-24 | NY-25 | NY-26 | NY-29
|Poll||Date||Sample||Collins (R)||Hochul (D)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||50.8||49.2||Collins +1.6|
|Siena||10/31 - 11/1||636 LV||48||47||Collins +1|
|Siena||10/1 - 10/4||633 LV||47||47||Tie|
|Siena||8/12 - 8/14||628 LV||47||45||Collins +2|
This district is something of a "leftovers" mishmash: It's what's left in western New York after you create districts for Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and the "Southern Tier" along the Pennsylvania border. It has long been Republican, but Democrat Kathy Hochul managed to score an upset in a special election to replace the scandal-ridden Chris Lee, who resigned after shirtless photos of him surfaced online.
The court-drawn remap made the district even more Republican than the old version; it is now the most heavily Republican district in the state. Hochul is running against ex-Erie County Executive and 1998 nominee (against LaFalce) Chris Collins, who has millions of dollars to draw upon in his race. Polling shows a tight contest that could go either way, something of a surprise in a district where Barack Obama won only 45 percent of the vote and John Kerry failed to top 43 percent.