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New York 24th District - Buerkle vs. Maffei

Candidates

Ann Marie Buerkle

Ann Marie Buerkle (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Dan Maffei

Dan Maffei (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

New York Snapshot

RCP Ranking: Leans Dem
2012 Key Races:
President | Senate | NY-1 | NY-11 | NY-18 | NY-19 | NY-21 | NY-25 | NY-27

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

2010: Governor | Senate | Senate (Special) | NY-1 | NY-2 | NY-4 | NY-13 | NY-19 | NY-20 | NY-22 | NY-23 | NY-24 | NY-25 | NY-27 | NY-29
2008: Pres | NY-13 | NY-25 | NY-26 | NY-29
2006: Governor | NY-19 | NY-20 | NY-24 | NY-25 | NY-26 | NY-29
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleBuerkle (R)Maffei (D)Spread
Final Results----43.448.8Maffei +5.4
Siena10/31 - 11/2670 LV4444Tie
Siena9/5 - 9/10625 LV4343Tie

Race Analysis

Syracuse is one of three cities that claim to be the founding site of the Republican Party. And for years it elected Republicans regularly to Congress. But as the 20th century wore on, the city shifted leftward, and in 2008 the district containing the city gave Barack Obama 56 percent of the vote.

In 2008 it also voted for Dan Maffei, the first Democrat to represent the 24th in several decades. Maffei proved to be a reliable vote for the Democratic leadership and faced a surprisingly stiff challenge from state Assistant Attorney General Ann Marie Buerkle, who won one of the closest races of the 2010 cycle.

But redistricting did her no favors, making the Democratic-leaning district roughly a point more Democratic than it was before.  Buerkle faces a rematch with Maffei.  Given the 24th's fundamentals, she's an underdog, although she's polling surprisingly well, all things considered, and an upset is hardly out of the question.