----------PAST KEY RACES----------
2010: Governor | Senate | Senate (Special) | NY-1 | NY-2 | NY-4 | NY-13 | NY-19 | NY-20 | NY-22 | NY-23 | NY-24 | NY-25 | NY-27 | NY-29
2008: Pres | NY-13 | NY-25 | NY-26 | NY-29
2006: Governor | NY-19 | NY-20 | NY-24 | NY-25 | NY-26 | NY-29
|Poll||Date||Sample||Altschuler (R)||Bishop (D)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||47.5||52.4||Bishop +4.9|
|Siena||9/5 - 9/10||624 LV||39||52||Bishop +13|
New York's 1st Congressional District covers roughly the eastern half of Long Island. Easthampton and (to a lesser extent) Bridgehampton are Democratic strongholds. As one moves westward, through Southampton, Brookhaven and Smithtown, the district becomes more Republican. Overall the district has a modestly Republican tilt to it.
Tim Bishop has represented the 1st since he defeated Felix Grucci in the good Republican year of 2002. Although Bishop is nominally a member of the conservative Blue Dog Caucus, he is a fairly reliable liberal, having earned a 100 percent rating from ADA in 2009; his major break with liberalism comes from his support for free trade agreements. He made noises about opposing the health care law, but ultimately supported it.
Bishop's GOP opponent is businessman Randy Altschuler, who gave Bishop an incredibly close race in 2010: Bishop won by 0.4 points. Under the current lines, which are about one point more Republican, Bishop likely would have lost. But this year looks to be better for Democrats than 2010. Recent polling shows a tight race, but Bishop likely retains an edge.