----------PAST KEY RACES----------
2010: Governor | Senate | Senate (Special) | NY-1 | NY-2 | NY-4 | NY-13 | NY-19 | NY-20 | NY-22 | NY-23 | NY-24 | NY-25 | NY-27 | NY-29
2008: Pres | NY-13 | NY-25 | NY-26 | NY-29
2006: Governor | NY-19 | NY-20 | NY-24 | NY-25 | NY-26 | NY-29
|Poll||Date||Sample||Gibson (R)||Schreibman (D)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||52.8||47.1||Gibson +5.7|
|Siena||10/27 - 10/28||649 LV||48||43||Gibson +5|
|Siena||9/17 - 9/18||635 LV||52||36||Gibson +16|
The 19th district, formerly the 20th, sent Republicans to Congress for decades before electing Kirsten Gillibrand in 2006. Gillibrand was re-elected handily in 2008. After her appointment to fill Hillary Clinton's Senate seat in 2008, Democrats held on to her district by a few hundred votes as Scott Murphy narrowly defeated a Republican challenger. But they weren't able to repeat the feat in the fall, and Murphy lost by 10 points to Chris Gibson.
Redistricting altered the district substantially, though, as it picked up large swaths of the dismembered - and Democratic-leaning - 22nd district. The district as currently constituted actually went for Barack Obama by more than his national average, and was almost won by John Kerry.
Still, Gibson is an adept campaigner and has managed to stay out of trouble. His poll numbers have held up quite well. But given the tilt of the district, it's hard to call him much of a substantial favorite.