|Poll||Date||Sample||Horsford (D)||Tarkanian (R)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||50.1||42.1||Horsford +8.0|
|LVRJ/SurveyUSA||10/26 - 10/28||648 LV||42||47||Tarkanian +5|
|LVRJ/SurveyUSA||9/18 - 9/19||646 LV||42||45||Tarkanian +3|
Nevada added a seat in redistricting, and Republicans had hoped that, given the solidly Democratic nature of the 1st District, they would end up with a swing district leaning their way. Instead, the newly created 4th, which encompasses North Las Vegas, the northern suburbs, and a few under-populated rural counties, has a distinct Democratic lean. It gave 58 percent of the vote to Obama in 2008, although it narrowly went for George W. Bush in 2004.
Republicans nominated Danny Tarkanian, son of the legendary UNLV basketball coach. Democrats opted for Steve Horsford, the state Senate majority leader. Horsford has had some problems -- including some serious financial difficulties in the late '90s and early 2000s. But Tarkanian cuts a less-than-inspiring figure, and polls have shown a surprisingly close race. Horsford retains an edge, but this could go either way.