2012 GOP Nomination
Wisconsin 2012 Recall
News & Election Videos

New Mexico 1st District - Arnold-Jones vs. Grisham


Janice Arnold-Jones

Janice Arnold-Jones (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Michelle Lujan Grisham

Michelle Lujan Grisham (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

New Mexico Snapshot

RCP Ranking: Safe Dem
2012 Key Races:
President | Senate

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

Governor | NM-1 | NM-2 | NM-3
2008: President | Senate | NM-1 | NM-2
2006: Governor | NM-1
2004: President | NM-1 | NM-2 | NM-3

Polling Data

PollDateSampleArnold-Jones (R)Grisham (D)Spread
Final Results----40.859.1Grisham +18.3
Albuquerque Journal10/23 - 10/25401 LV3651Grisham +15
Albuquerque Journal10/9 - 10/11402 LV3751Grisham +14
Albuquerque Journal9/3 - 9/6409 LV3446Grisham +12

Race Analysis

When Democrats picked up this blue-leaning Albuquerque-based district in 2008, most observers assumed it was theirs for good.  But two years later, freshman Martin Heinrich found himself in a surprisingly tough race against Jon Barela, the former Albuquerque Hispano Chamber of Commerce president.  Although the polls showed a close race, Heinrich managed to win by a healthy 3.6 point margin.

This year Heinrich seems to be Senate-bound, and this open district leans heavily toward the Democrats.  They have nominated Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham, while Republicans opted for former state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones.  Republicans had high hopes for Arnold-Jones initially, but she doesn't seem to have gained any traction.  A major, last-minute shift in the dynamics of this race would be needed for her to win.