|Poll||Date||Sample||Arnold-Jones (R)||Grisham (D)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||40.8||59.1||Grisham +18.3|
|Albuquerque Journal||10/23 - 10/25||401 LV||36||51||Grisham +15|
|Albuquerque Journal||10/9 - 10/11||402 LV||37||51||Grisham +14|
|Albuquerque Journal||9/3 - 9/6||409 LV||34||46||Grisham +12|
When Democrats picked up this blue-leaning Albuquerque-based district in 2008, most observers assumed it was theirs for good. But two years later, freshman Martin Heinrich found himself in a surprisingly tough race against Jon Barela, the former Albuquerque Hispano Chamber of Commerce president. Although the polls showed a close race, Heinrich managed to win by a healthy 3.6 point margin.
This year Heinrich seems to be Senate-bound, and this open district leans heavily toward the Democrats. They have nominated Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham, while Republicans opted for former state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones. Republicans had high hopes for Arnold-Jones initially, but she doesn't seem to have gained any traction. A major, last-minute shift in the dynamics of this race would be needed for her to win.