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New Jersey 3rd District - Runyan vs. Adler


Shelley Adler

Shelley Adler (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Jon Runyan

Jon Runyan (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

New Jersey Snapshot

RCP Ranking: Leans GOP
2012 Key Races:
President | Senate | NJ-7

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

NJ-3 | NJ-6 | NJ-12
2009: Governor
2008: President | Senate | NJ-3 | NJ-7
2006: Senate
2004: President

Polling Data

PollDateSampleAdler (D)Runyan (R)Spread
Final Results----44.953.7Runyan +8.8
Richard Stockton College9/28 - 10/2614 LV3949Runyan +10

Race Analysis

This Atlantic City/suburban Philly district elected Republican Jim Saxton to the House for a little bit more than two decades before he chose to retire.  Democrat John Adler claimed the open seat by a surprisingly narrow margin in 2008.  Adler lost by another surprisingly narrow margin (three points) in 2010 to former Philadelphia Eagles player Jon Runyan.  Democrats had hoped for a rematch, but Adler passed away in early 2011.

Democrats turned to Adler's widow, Shelley, and had high hopes of reclaiming the seat.  But the reddish seat became a few points redder in redistricting, and Adler has struggled to find any traction.  She's not out of it, but it would probably take a substantial shift toward the Democrats for her to win.