|Poll||Date||Sample||Adler (D)||Runyan (R)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||44.9||53.7||Runyan +8.8|
|Richard Stockton College||9/28 - 10/2||614 LV||39||49||Runyan +10|
This Atlantic City/suburban Philly district elected Republican Jim Saxton to the House for a little bit more than two decades before he chose to retire. Democrat John Adler claimed the open seat by a surprisingly narrow margin in 2008. Adler lost by another surprisingly narrow margin (three points) in 2010 to former Philadelphia Eagles player Jon Runyan. Democrats had hoped for a rematch, but Adler passed away in early 2011.
Democrats turned to Adler's widow, Shelley, and had high hopes of reclaiming the seat. But the reddish seat became a few points redder in redistricting, and Adler has struggled to find any traction. She's not out of it, but it would probably take a substantial shift toward the Democrats for her to win.