|Poll||Date||Sample||Guinta (R)||Shea-Porter (D)||Spread|
|Final Results||--||--||46.0||49.8||Shea-Porter +3.8|
|WMUR/UNH||11/1 - 11/4||366 LV||46||49||Shea-Porter +3|
|New England College||10/29 - 10/31||511 LV||48||41||Guinta +7|
|UNH||10/17 - 10/21||364 LV||41||38||Guinta +3|
|WMUR/UNH||10/1 - 10/6||200 LV||45||35||Guinta +10|
|WMUR/UNH||9/27 - 9/30||273 LV||38||47||Shea-Porter +9|
|WMUR/UNH||8/1 - 8/12||258 LV||43||45||Shea-Porter +2|
|PPP (D)||5/10 - 5/13||502 RV||43||47||Shea-Porter +4|
|WMUR/UNH||4/9 - 4/20||230 LV||39||44||Shea-Porter +5|
|PPP (D)||6/30 - 7/5||299 RV||48||41||Guinta +7|
Antiwar activist Carol Shea-Porter won this district in a stunning 2006 upset of Jeb Bradley. She held off Bradley again in 2008 but fell to Republican Frank Guinta two years later by a solid 11-point margin. Guinta was the mayor of Manchester, from the Democratic-leaning portion of the district. His roots in the Democratic part of the district, the Republican wave, and Shea-Porter's solidly Democratic voting record proved too much for the incumbent.
But Guinta's voting record in Congress has proved troublesome in his swing district, and poll after poll shows him with a weak approval rating. But the Democrats re-nominated Shea-Porter, who is a weak fundraiser and who remains to the left of the electorate. The polls have been all over the place, which suggests the race really could go either way.