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New Hampshire 1st District - Guinta vs. Shea-Porter

Candidates

Frank Guinta

Frank Guinta (R)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Carol Shea-Porter

Carol Shea-Porter (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

New Hampshire Snapshot

RCP Ranking: Toss Up
2012 Key Races:
President | Governor | NH-2

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2010
: Governor | Senate | NH-1 | NH-2
2008: President | Senate | NH-1
2006: Governor | NH-2
2004: President | Senate | NH-1 | NH-2

Polling Data

PollDateSampleGuinta (R)Shea-Porter (D)Spread
Final Results----46.049.8Shea-Porter +3.8
WMUR/UNH11/1 - 11/4366 LV4649Shea-Porter +3
New England College10/29 - 10/31511 LV4841Guinta +7
UNH10/17 - 10/21364 LV4138Guinta +3
WMUR/UNH10/1 - 10/6200 LV4535Guinta +10
WMUR/UNH9/27 - 9/30273 LV3847Shea-Porter +9
WMUR/UNH8/1 - 8/12258 LV4345Shea-Porter +2
PPP (D)5/10 - 5/13502 RV4347Shea-Porter +4
WMUR/UNH4/9 - 4/20230 LV3944Shea-Porter +5
PPP (D)6/30 - 7/5299 RV4841Guinta +7

Race Analysis

Antiwar activist Carol Shea-Porter won this district in a stunning 2006 upset of Jeb Bradley.  She held off Bradley again in 2008 but fell to Republican Frank Guinta two years later by a solid 11-point margin. Guinta was the mayor of Manchester, from the Democratic-leaning portion of the district. His roots in the Democratic part of the district, the Republican wave, and Shea-Porter's solidly Democratic voting record proved too much for the incumbent.

But Guinta's voting record in Congress has proved troublesome in his swing district, and poll after poll shows him with a weak approval rating. But the Democrats re-nominated Shea-Porter, who is a weak fundraiser and who remains to the left of the electorate.  The polls have been all over the place, which suggests the race really could go either way.