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North Dakota At-Large - Cramer vs. Gulleson


Kevin Cramer

Kevin Cramer (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Pam Gulleson

Pam Gulleson (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

North Dakota Snapshot

RCP Ranking: Likely GOP
2012 Key Races: President | Governor | Senate

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

Senate | ND-AL
2008: President | Governor
2006: Senate | ND-AL
2004: President | Governor

Polling Data

PollDateSampleCramer (R)Gulleson (D)Spread
Final Results----54.941.7Cramer +13.2
Mason-Dixon10/26 - 10/28625 LV5040Cramer +10
Forum/Essman10/12 - 10/15500 LV5232Cramer +20
Mason-Dixon10/3 - 10/5625 LV4937Cramer +12
Mason-Dixon6/4 - 6/6625 LV4935Cramer +14

Race Analysis

North Dakota has long been an anomaly.  It is one of the most heavily Republican states in the country, with a Cook PVI of R+10.  At the same time, from 1986 through 2010, it failed to elect a single Republican to statewide office.

Of course, this changed in 2010, when Republicans handily picked up the Senate seat of retiring Byron Dorgan and also defeated Congressman Earl Pomeroy.  Republicans hoped to complete the trifecta when Sen. Kent Conrad announced his retirement and newly elected Rep. Rick Berg decided to run for the seat.

But Berg has run into difficulty in that race against a game challenge from former Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp. The state party-anointed candidate for his House seat was defeated in the Republican primary by state Public Service Commissioner Kevin Cramer.  That has some Democrats hoping that former Dorgan staffer Pam Gulleson can take the seat, but she has struggled to match Heitkamp's success.