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North Carolina 7th District - Rouzer vs. McIntyre


Mike McIntyre

Mike McIntyre (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

David Rouzer

David Rouzer (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

North Carolina Snapshot

RCP Ranking: Toss Up
2012 Key Races:
Pres | Gov | NC-8 | NC-11

----------PAST KEY RACES----------

Senate | NC-2 | NC-4 | NC-7 | NC-8 | NC-11 | NC-13
2008: President | Senate | Governor | NC-8
2006: NC-11
2004: President | Senate | Governor | NC-11

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMcIntyre (D)Rouzer (R)Spread
Final Results----50.149.9McIntyre +0.2

Race Analysis

This district in southeastern North Carolina and the conservative wing of the state's Democratic Party have had a lengthy marriage, dating back over a century.  This is the last area of the state that can still claim to have never been represented by a Republican in Congress in modern times; the last time a Republican represented this portion of North Carolina was in 1868, when the state was still under military rule.

The district is anchored in Wilmington, which has a long, sad history of race relations.  It was the site of one of the largest race riots in American history.  The incumbent Republican governor was nearly lynched during the conflagration, Wilmington's prosperous black middle class was wiped out, and the city's steady growth was stopped as a result.

Most observers expect that Mike McIntyre will be the last of the 7th's conservative Democrats.  His district was already strongly Republican, and notwithstanding a solidly conservative voting record, he nearly lost to a mediocre Republican challenger in 2010.  This year his district was made even more Republican, and he faces a better -- though by no means outstanding -- opponent in state Sen. David Rouzer.  McIntyre is a decent fit for the district and may well win, though it will likely be close.