Washington Senate - Rossi vs. Murray
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Murray (D) | Rossi (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 51.9 | 48.1 | Murray +3.8 |
| RCP Average | 10/24 - 10/31 | -- | 48.3 | 48.0 | Murray +0.3 |
| PPP (D) | 10/29 - 10/31 | 2055 LV | 48 | 50 | Rossi +2 |
| FOX News/POR-Rasmussen | 10/30 - 10/30 | 1000 LV | 49 | 47 | Murray +2 |
| McClatchy/Marist | 10/26 - 10/28 | 638 LV | 49 | 48 | Murray +1 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/24 - 10/27 | 678 LV | 47 | 47 | Tie |
All Washington Senate - Rossi vs. Murray Polling Data
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Race Analysis
11/2/10, 6:50am -- The final polling shows a true tossup race, with Murray having a tiny 0.3% lead in the RCP Average. With the late polls suggesting that Rossi has the closing momentum he appears to have the slightest of edges.
11/1/10 -- The polls now show a slight Rossi lead, and he's ahead among those who have already voted. Murray finds herself in trouble here.
10/30/10 -- The last-minute polls seem to be tightening here, showing a single-digit race. Turnout will be key -- and of course, a large portion of the electorate has already voted.
10/13/10 -- The polling see-saw continues. Just as Rossi moved inot the lead in the RCP Average, the Elway Poll showed a 6 point swing toward Murray, giving her a massive 15-point lead. At the same time, CNN/Time showed an eight-point lead for Murray, although that did represent slight slippage toward Rossi. She's back up in the RCP Average.
10/8/10 -- Rossi has been on the counterattack for a few weeks now, and the race seems to have reverted to status quo ante. The last few polls have shown Rossi with a lead, and Murray under 50 percent. Moreover, Murray has already unleashed her ad barrage, so it's not clear how she'll turn the momentum around.
9/23/10 -- Murray has been on the air since Labor Day, and it seems to have moved the race some. She is still hovering just at 50 percent, and remains vulnerable.
----------Race Preview---------
Like most Pacific Coast states, Washington’s political heritage is Republican. But these Republicans tended to be from the progressive wing of the party, which formed a loud minority at the turn of the century. FDR brought these voters into the Democratic fold during the 1930s and 40s, and the state’s Republican Party saw its dominance in the state decline. Today the Democratic dominance in the greater Seattle area gives that party an advantage in statewide elections, although Republicans dominate the state east of the Cascade Mountains.
Patty Murray is the senior Senator from Washington. The self-described “mom in tennis shoes” scored an upset victory during the 1992 “Year of the Woman,” and has been re-elected easily ever since, even as she has faced consistently strong opposition. During her three terms, she has compiled a solidly liberal voting record.
Murray will face off against two-time gubernatorial loser Dino Rossi in November. In the state's unique primary system, all candidates appear on the same ballot, with the top-two vote-getters advancing to the November election, regardless of party. This year, the Democrats combined for 48.5 percent of the vote while the Republicans totaled 49.9 percent of the vote; the numbers typically do not move much between the primary and general election, pointing toward a very close race in the fall.
Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | Murray (D) | Rossi (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Results | -- | -- | 51.9 | 48.1 | Murray +3.8 |
| RCP Average | 10/24 - 10/31 | -- | 48.3 | 48.0 | Murray +0.3 |
| PPP (D) | 10/29 - 10/31 | 2055 LV | 48 | 50 | Rossi +2 |
| FOX News/POR-Rasmussen | 10/30 - 10/30 | 1000 LV | 49 | 47 | Murray +2 |
| McClatchy/Marist | 10/26 - 10/28 | 638 LV | 49 | 48 | Murray +1 |
| The Washington Poll | 10/18 - 10/28 | 348 LV | 51 | 45 | Murray +6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/27 - 10/27 | 750 LV | 47 | 48 | Rossi +1 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/24 - 10/27 | 678 LV | 47 | 47 | Tie |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/17 - 10/17 | 750 LV | 49 | 46 | Murray +3 |
| McClatchy/Marist | 10/14 - 10/17 | 589 LV | 48 | 47 | Murray +1 |
| PPP (D) | 10/14 - 10/16 | 1873 LV | 49 | 47 | Murray +2 |
| SurveyUSA | 10/11 - 10/14 | 606 LV | 50 | 47 | Murray +3 |
| The Washington Poll | 10/5 - 10/14 | 500 RV | 50 | 42 | Murray +8 |
| CNN/Time | 10/8 - 10/12 | 850 LV | 51 | 43 | Murray +8 |
| Elway Poll | 10/7 - 10/11 | 450 LV | 55 | 40 | Murray +15 |
| FOX News/POR-Rasmussen | 10/9 - 10/9 | 1000 LV | 46 | 47 | Rossi +1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 10/6 - 10/6 | 750 LV | 46 | 49 | Rossi +3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 9/28 - 9/28 | 750 LV | 47 | 48 | Rossi +1 |
| AAF/Fabrizio (R) | 9/26 - 9/27 | 500 LV | 42 | 48 | Rossi +6 |
| FOX News/POR-Rasmussen | 9/25 - 9/25 | 1000 LV | 48 | 47 | Murray +1 |
| SurveyUSA | 9/19 - 9/21 | 609 LV | 50 | 48 | Murray +2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 9/14 - 9/14 | 750 LV | 51 | 46 | Murray +5 |
| CNN/Time | 9/10 - 9/14 | 906 LV | 53 | 44 | Murray +9 |
| Elway Poll | 9/9 - 9/12 | 500 LV | 50 | 41 | Murray +9 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 8/31 - 8/31 | 750 LV | 47 | 50 | Rossi +3 |
| SurveyUSA | 8/18 - 8/19 | 618 LV | 45 | 52 | Rossi +7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 8/18 - 8/18 | 750 LV | 50 | 46 | Murray +4 |
| PPP (D) | 7/27 - 8/1 | 1204 RV | 49 | 46 | Murray +3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 7/28 - 7/28 | 750 LV | 49 | 47 | Murray +2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 7/14 - 7/14 | 750 LV | 45 | 48 | Rossi +3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 6/22 - 6/22 | 500 LV | 47 | 47 | Tie |
| Elway Poll | 6/9 - 6/13 | 405 RV | 47 | 40 | Murray +7 |
| The Washington Poll | 5/3 - 5/28 | 847 RV | 42 | 40 | Murray +2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 5/26 - 5/26 | 500 LV | 48 | 47 | Murray +1 |
| The Washington Poll | 5/3 - 5/23 | 626 RV | 44 | 40 | Murray +4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 5/4 - 5/4 | 500 LV | 48 | 46 | Murray +2 |
| Elway Poll | 4/29 - 5/2 | 405 RV | 51 | 34 | Murray +17 |
| SurveyUSA | 4/19 - 4/22 | 517 LV | 42 | 52 | Rossi +10 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 4/6 - 4/6 | 500 LV | 48 | 46 | Murray +2 |
| R2000/Daily Kos (D)** | 3/22 - 3/24 | 600 LV | 52 | 41 | Murray +11 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 3/9 - 3/9 | 500 LV | 46 | 49 | Rossi +3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2/11 - 2/11 | 500 LV | 46 | 48 | Rossi +2 |
| Moore Info. (R) | 1/24 - 1/25 | 500 LV | 43 | 45 | Rossi +2 |