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Washington Senate - Rossi vs. Murray

Candidates

Patty Murray

Patty Murray (D)*

Bio | Campaign Site

Dino Rossi

Dino Rossi (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Washington Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
WA-2 | WA-3 | WA-6 | WA-8 | WA-9

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President | Governor | WA-8
2006: Senate | WA-8
2004: President | Gov | Sen | WA-5 | WA-8

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMurray (D)Rossi (R)Spread
Final Results----51.948.1Murray +3.8
RCP Average10/24 - 10/31--48.348.0Murray +0.3
PPP (D)10/29 - 10/312055 LV4850Rossi +2
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/30 - 10/301000 LV4947Murray +2
McClatchy/Marist10/26 - 10/28638 LV4948Murray +1
SurveyUSA10/24 - 10/27678 LV4747Tie

All Washington Senate - Rossi vs. Murray Polling Data

(After October 4th registered voter poll results will not be added to RCP State Poll Averages.)
RCP Poll Average
Washington Senate - Rossi vs. Murray
48.3Murray (D)+0.3
48.0Rossi (R)

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Race Analysis

11/2/10, 6:50am -- The final polling shows a true tossup race, with Murray having a tiny 0.3% lead in the RCP Average.  With the late polls suggesting that Rossi has the closing momentum he appears to have the slightest of edges.

11/1/10 -- The polls now show a slight Rossi lead, and he's ahead among those who have already voted.  Murray finds herself in trouble here.

10/30/10 -- The last-minute polls seem to be tightening here, showing a single-digit race.  Turnout will be key -- and of course, a large portion of the electorate has already voted.

10/13/10 -- The polling see-saw continues.  Just as Rossi moved inot the lead in the RCP Average, the Elway Poll showed a 6 point swing toward Murray, giving her a massive 15-point lead.  At the same time, CNN/Time showed an eight-point lead for Murray, although that did represent slight slippage toward Rossi.  She's back up in the RCP Average.

10/8/10 -- Rossi has been on the counterattack for a few weeks now, and the race seems to have reverted to status quo ante.  The last few polls have shown Rossi with a lead, and Murray under 50 percent.  Moreover, Murray has already unleashed her ad barrage, so it's not clear how she'll turn the momentum around.

9/23/10 -- Murray has been on the air since Labor Day, and it seems to have moved the race some.  She is still hovering just at 50 percent, and remains vulnerable.

----------Race Preview---------

Like most Pacific Coast states, Washington’s political heritage is Republican. But these Republicans tended to be from the progressive wing of the party, which formed a loud minority at the turn of the century. FDR brought these voters into the Democratic fold during the 1930s and 40s, and the state’s Republican Party saw its dominance in the state decline. Today the Democratic dominance in the greater Seattle area gives that party an advantage in statewide elections, although Republicans dominate the state east of the Cascade Mountains.

Patty Murray is the senior Senator from Washington. The self-described “mom in tennis shoes” scored an upset victory during the 1992 “Year of the Woman,” and has been re-elected easily ever since, even as she has faced consistently strong opposition. During her three terms, she has compiled a solidly liberal voting record.

Murray will face off against two-time gubernatorial loser Dino Rossi in November. In the state's unique primary system, all candidates appear on the same ballot, with the top-two vote-getters advancing to the November election, regardless of party. This year, the Democrats combined for 48.5 percent of the vote while the Republicans totaled 49.9 percent of the vote; the numbers typically do not move much between the primary and general election, pointing toward a very close race in the fall.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleMurray (D)Rossi (R)Spread
Final Results----51.948.1Murray +3.8
RCP Average10/24 - 10/31--48.348.0Murray +0.3
PPP (D)10/29 - 10/312055 LV4850Rossi +2
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/30 - 10/301000 LV4947Murray +2
McClatchy/Marist10/26 - 10/28638 LV4948Murray +1
The Washington Poll10/18 - 10/28348 LV5145Murray +6
Rasmussen Reports10/27 - 10/27750 LV4748Rossi +1
SurveyUSA10/24 - 10/27678 LV4747Tie
Rasmussen Reports10/17 - 10/17750 LV4946Murray +3
McClatchy/Marist10/14 - 10/17589 LV4847Murray +1
PPP (D)10/14 - 10/161873 LV4947Murray +2
SurveyUSA10/11 - 10/14606 LV5047Murray +3
The Washington Poll10/5 - 10/14500 RV5042Murray +8
CNN/Time10/8 - 10/12850 LV5143Murray +8
Elway Poll10/7 - 10/11450 LV5540Murray +15
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen10/9 - 10/91000 LV4647Rossi +1
Rasmussen Reports10/6 - 10/6750 LV4649Rossi +3
Rasmussen Reports9/28 - 9/28750 LV4748Rossi +1
AAF/Fabrizio (R)9/26 - 9/27500 LV4248Rossi +6
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen9/25 - 9/251000 LV4847Murray +1
SurveyUSA9/19 - 9/21609 LV5048Murray +2
Rasmussen Reports9/14 - 9/14750 LV5146Murray +5
CNN/Time9/10 - 9/14906 LV5344Murray +9
Elway Poll9/9 - 9/12500 LV5041Murray +9
Rasmussen Reports8/31 - 8/31750 LV4750Rossi +3
SurveyUSA8/18 - 8/19618 LV4552Rossi +7
Rasmussen Reports8/18 - 8/18750 LV5046Murray +4
PPP (D)7/27 - 8/11204 RV4946Murray +3
Rasmussen Reports7/28 - 7/28750 LV4947Murray +2
Rasmussen Reports7/14 - 7/14750 LV4548Rossi +3
Rasmussen Reports6/22 - 6/22500 LV4747Tie
Elway Poll6/9 - 6/13405 RV4740Murray +7
The Washington Poll5/3 - 5/28847 RV4240Murray +2
Rasmussen Reports5/26 - 5/26500 LV4847Murray +1
The Washington Poll5/3 - 5/23626 RV4440Murray +4
Rasmussen Reports5/4 - 5/4500 LV4846Murray +2
Elway Poll4/29 - 5/2405 RV5134Murray +17
SurveyUSA4/19 - 4/22517 LV4252Rossi +10
Rasmussen Reports4/6 - 4/6500 LV4846Murray +2
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**3/22 - 3/24600 LV5241Murray +11
Rasmussen Reports3/9 - 3/9500 LV4649Rossi +3
Rasmussen Reports2/11 - 2/11500 LV4648Rossi +2
Moore Info. (R)1/24 - 1/25500 LV4345Rossi +2
(After October 4th registered voter poll results will not be added to RCP State Poll Averages.)