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Pennsylvania Senate - Sestak vs. Toomey

Candidates

Joe Sestak

Joe Sestak (D)

Bio | Campaign Site

Pat Toomey

Pat Toomey (R)

Bio | Campaign Site

Pennsylvania Snapshot

RCP Average:
RCP Ranking:
2010 Key Races:
Governor | PA-3 | PA-4 | PA-6 | PA-7 | PA-8 | PA-10 | PA-11 | PA-12 | PA-13 | PA-15 | PA-17

----------PAST KEY RACES----------


2008:
President | PA-3 | PA-10 | PA-11
2006: Senate | Governor | PA-4 | PA-6 | PA-7 | PA-8 | PA-10
2004: President | Senate | PA-13

Polling Data

PollDateSampleSestak (D)Toomey (R)Spread
Final Results----49.051.0Toomey +2.0
RCP Average10/24 - 10/31--45.049.5Toomey +4.5
PPP (D)10/30 - 10/31772 LV4651Toomey +5
Morning Call Tracking10/28 - 10/31474 LV4448Toomey +4
Quinnipiac10/25 - 10/301244 LV4550Toomey +5
Rasmussen Reports10/28 - 10/28750 LV4650Toomey +4
McClatchy/Marist10/26 - 10/28461 LV4552Toomey +7
Susquehanna10/24 - 10/27800 LV4446Toomey +2

All Pennsylvania Senate - Sestak vs. Toomey Polling Data

RCP Poll Average
Pennsylvania Senate - Sestak vs. Toomey
45.0Sestak (D)
49.5Toomey (R)+4.5

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Race Analysis

10/30/10 -- Toomey's lead has stabilized a bit here.  He's usually ahead, but within the error margin.  He's favored, but not by a wide margin.

10/26/10 -- The polls are a bit all over the place here.  Morning Call's tracking poll shows an eleven point swing from a week ago, while Reuters/Ipsos enters the fray with a poll showing a tie race.  Without any crosstabs, it is difficult to get a sense of who has a better view of the race, but Toomey appears to have an overall lead.

10/20/10 -- Toomey's lead appears to have disappeared in the last few days of the campaign.  Both PPP and Morning Call's tracking poll have Joe Sestak up a few points -- his first leads since May.  Could Sestak's "waiting until we see the whites of their eyes" strategy work once again?

10/8/10 -- Toomey's lead seems to be holding up as we approach the closing days of the race, even as Sestak begins his ad barrage.  If he wins it will be a real stunner, as he will be the most conservative Senator the state has elected in decades.

----------Race Preview---------

When Arlen Specter was born in 1930, Pennsylvania had 36 Congressional districts. All of them save for one – the 12th – elected Republicans. When Specter first entered public life it was a very different Pennsylvania: The western part of the state was heavily unionized and Democratic, the Philadelphia Republican machine had disappeared, and Republican strength was found in the Philly suburbs (including northeast Philly) and the mountainous interior of the state.

Today, the state is different once again. The Philly suburbs have moved toward the Democrats, while Pittsburgh has moved toward the Republicans. The Republican Party has changed as well; it is a more conservative entity, one that is much less welcoming toward liberal Republicans such as Specter. Specter left the Party in mid-2009 to avoid a primary challenge from Pat Toomey, only to lose the Democratic Primary to Congressman Joe Sestak.

The race between Toomey and Sestak is a study in contrasts. Both men represented areas in Congress that at least nominally favored the other party. Both are from the eastern portion of the state, leaving the west up for grabs. In a normal year, Sestak would probably win – Toomey’s economic conservatism isn’t a great match for this economically populist state. But in this year of tea parties, the more salient factor in the general election may be Sestak’s support of the Obama administration’s spending.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleSestak (D)Toomey (R)Spread
Final Results----49.051.0Toomey +2.0
RCP Average10/24 - 10/31--45.049.5Toomey +4.5
PPP (D)10/30 - 10/31772 LV4651Toomey +5
Morning Call Tracking10/28 - 10/31474 LV4448Toomey +4
Quinnipiac10/25 - 10/301244 LV4550Toomey +5
Rasmussen Reports10/28 - 10/28750 LV4650Toomey +4
McClatchy/Marist10/26 - 10/28461 LV4552Toomey +7
Morning Call Tracking10/24 - 10/27460 LV4048Toomey +8
Susquehanna10/24 - 10/27800 LV4446Toomey +2
CNN/Time10/20 - 10/26823 LV4549Toomey +4
Reuters/Ipsos10/22 - 10/24400 LV4646Tie
Morning Call Tracking10/21 - 10/24437 LV4247Toomey +5
Franklin & Marshall10/18 - 10/24489 LV3643Toomey +7
Rasmussen Reports10/21 - 10/21750 LV4448Toomey +4
Morning Call Tracking10/16 - 10/19403 LV4441Sestak +3
PPP (D)10/17 - 10/18718 LV4645Sestak +1
Quinnipiac10/13 - 10/171046 LV4648Toomey +2
Rasmussen Reports10/12 - 10/12750 LV3949Toomey +10
Morning Call9/28 - 10/4577 LV3946Toomey +7
Rasmussen Reports9/29 - 9/29750 LV4049Toomey +9
McClatchy/Marist9/26 - 9/28468 LV4251Toomey +9
Suffolk University9/24 - 9/27500 LV4045Toomey +5
Susquehanna9/23 - 9/26800 LV4245Toomey +3
Franklin & Marshall9/20 - 9/26436 LV2938Toomey +9
Morning Call9/18 - 9/23445 LV3946Toomey +7
Magellan Strategies (R)9/21 - 9/211430 LV4149Toomey +8
CNN/Time9/17 - 9/21741 LV4449Toomey +5
Quinnipiac9/15 - 9/19684 LV4350Toomey +7
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen9/18 - 9/181000 LV4048Toomey +8
Times Leader/Critical Insights9/14 - 9/16600 LV3640Toomey +4
Rasmussen Reports9/13 - 9/13750 LV4149Toomey +8
FOX News/POR-Rasmussen9/11 - 9/111000 LV4147Toomey +6
Rasmussen Reports8/30 - 8/30750 LV4248Toomey +6
Reuters/Ipsos8/27 - 8/29407 LV3747Toomey +10
Franklin & Marshall8/16 - 8/23377 LV3140Toomey +9
Rasmussen Reports8/16 - 8/16750 LV4048Toomey +8
PPP (D)8/14 - 8/16585 LV3645Toomey +9
Rasmussen Reports7/28 - 7/28750 LV3945Toomey +6
Rasmussen Reports7/14 - 7/14750 LV3845Toomey +7
Quinnipiac7/6 - 7/111367 RV4343Tie
Rasmussen Reports6/29 - 6/29500 LV3945Toomey +6
PPP (D)6/19 - 6/21609 LV4141Tie
Rasmussen Reports6/2 - 6/2500 LV3845Toomey +7
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**5/24 - 5/26600 LV4340Sestak +3
Rasmussen Reports5/19 - 5/19500 LV4642Sestak +4
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**5/10 - 5/12600 LV4045Toomey +5
Quinnipiac5/4 - 5/101161 RV4042Toomey +2
Franklin & Marshall5/3 - 5/9861 RV2829Toomey +1
Rasmussen Reports5/6 - 5/61000 LV4042Toomey +2
Rasmussen Reports4/12 - 4/121000 LV3647Toomey +11
Morning Call3/29 - 4/7402 LV4047Toomey +7
Quinnipiac3/30 - 4/51412 RV3442Toomey +8
PPP (D)3/29 - 4/1934 LV3642Toomey +6
Franklin & Marshall3/15 - 3/21964 RV1927Toomey +8
Rasmussen Reports3/15 - 3/151000 LV3742Toomey +5
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**3/8 - 3/10600 LV3942Toomey +3
Quinnipiac2/22 - 2/281452 RV3639Toomey +3
Franklin & Marshall2/15 - 2/21954 RV2225Toomey +3
Rasmussen Reports2/8 - 2/81000 LV3543Toomey +8
Franklin & Marshall1/18 - 1/24993 RV1628Toomey +12
Rasmussen Reports1/18 - 1/181000 LV3543Toomey +8
Quinnipiac12/8 - 12/141381 RV3540Toomey +5
Rasmussen Reports12/8 - 12/81200 LV3844Toomey +6
Franklin & Marshall10/20 - 10/25529 RV2028Toomey +8
Rasmussen Reports10/13 - 10/131200 LV3837Sestak +1
Quinnipiac9/22 - 9/281100 RV3538Toomey +3
Franklin & Marshall8/25 - 8/31562 RV2226Toomey +4
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**8/10 - 8/12600 LV4241Sestak +1
Rasmussen Reports8/11 - 8/111000 LV3543Toomey +8
Quinnipiac7/14 - 7/191173 RV3539Toomey +4
Rasmussen Reports6/16 - 6/16500 LV4135Sestak +6
Quinnipiac5/20 - 5/261191 RV3735Sestak +2
R2000/Daily Kos (D)**5/4 - 5/6600 LV3732Sestak +5